Urbana, Illinois
June 30, 2009June USDA
reports point to a more comfortable supply of corn, soybeans,
and wheat for the 2009-10 marketing year, which is negative for
prices.
“Estimates in the USDA’s June 1 Grain Stocks and Acreage reports
exceeded expectations and were generally very negative for corn
price prospects. Acreage of wheat also exceeded expectations.
Estimates were closer to expectations for soybeans but point to
ample supplies during the year ahead,”, said
University of
Illinois Extension ag economist Darrel Good.
The USDA estimated stocks of corn on June 1 at 4.266 billion
bushels, 238 million larger than stocks of a year ago and about
75 million larger than the average trade guess. Stocks were
about 185 million larger than if third quarter domestic
consumption had been at the rate projected by the USDA.
Also, the July update of projected marketing year consumption
and year-ending stocks will likely contain a larger projection
of year-ending inventories.
USDA inventories of soybeans on June 1 were estimated at 597
million bushels, 79 million smaller than the inventory of a year
ago, but about 10 million above the average trade guess. Seed,
feed, and residual use of soybeans during the third quarter of
the year was below the average of the past 5 years.
“The report does not alter the outlook for extremely tight
supplies of soybeans at the end of the 2008-09 marketing year.
Both exports and the domestic crush are progressing at a
slightly faster pace than projected by the USDA,” Good said.
Planted acreage of corn in 2009 is now estimated at 87.035
million, 1.053 million more than planted in 2008 and 2.049
million more than reported in the USDA’s March Prospective
Plantings report.
Acreage exceeded intentions in most states. The largest
increases were in Nebraska (600,000) and Iowa (500,000). Acreage
exceeded intentions by 100,000 in Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota,
Ohio, Pennsylvania, and South Dakota. Acreage is 400,000 less
than intentions in North Dakota.
Corn acreage harvested for grain in 2009 is projected at 80.107
million, 1.467 million more than harvested last year.
“If the U.S. average yield is near the adjusted trend of 153.4
bushels projected by the USDA earlier this month, the 2009 crop
would total 12.288 billion bushels, 353 million larger than the
early month projection.
“A larger crop, along with larger stocks at the beginning of the
2009-10 marketing year and the now confirmed slowing pace of
domestic consumption, suggest that stocks at the end of the
2009-10 marketing year will now be projected well above the 1.09
billion bushels previously projected by the USDA,” Good said.
Planted acreage of soybeans in 2009 is estimated at 77.483
million acres, 936,000 more than acreage of a year ago and 1.459
million more than intentions reported in March. The largest
increases relative to intentions were in South Dakota (400,000)
and Missouri (350,000). Acreage exceeds intentions by 100,000 in
Illinois, Kansas, and Mississippi; 140,000 in Tennessee; 150,000
in North Dakota; and 200,000 in Minnesota. Acreage is 500,000
less than intentions in Nebraska.
“Soybean acreage estimates may include more than the usual
portion of intentions due to late planting in the eastern Corn
Belt,” Good said.
Harvested acreage of soybeans in 2009 is projected at 76.547
million, 1.906 million more than harvested last year. If the
2009 yield is at the trend value of 42.6 bushels projected by
USDA earlier this month, the 2009 crop would total 3.261 billion
bushels, 66 million above the early month projection.
“A crop of that size will generate expectations of fully
adequate supplies for the 2009-10 marketing year, particularly
if South American production rebounds in 2010,” Good said.
Planted acreage of wheat for harvest in 2009 is now estimated at
59.775 million, 3.372 million less than planted for harvest in
2008, but 1.137 million more than estimated in March. Winter
wheat acreage was 559,000 more than previously estimated, while
durum acreage exceeded intentions by 100,000 and acreage of
other spring wheat exceeded intentions by 468,000 acres.
Harvested acreage of all classes of wheat is projected at 50.445
million, 5.24 million fewer than harvested last year, but about
1.5 million more than projected earlier this month.
The acreage planted to principal crops in 2009 is estimated at
320.879 million, 3.94 million less than planted in 2008. This is
a much smaller decline than reported in March. Intentions for
the crops reported in March were 7.8 million acres less than
planted in 2008.
“Markets will now focus on summer weather and yield prospects
for future price directions,” Good said. |
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