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The Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) today released its preliminary crop forecasts, projecting a western Canadian wheat, durum and barley crop of 29.7 million tonnes in the 2009 crop year, down almost 20 per cent from last year's 36.7 million tonnes and significantly below the five-year average of 33.9 million tonnes. The all-wheat yield estimate announced by the CWB today, at 33.4 bushels per acre, is the lowest initial projection in seven years.

"Cold weather across the Prairies this spring has had a detrimental effect on planting and early crop development in most growing regions," said Bruce Burnett, CWB director of weather and market analysis, at the annual CWB grain industry briefing today. "In addition, soil moisture levels are dangerously low in parts of Alberta and western Saskatchewan, where dry conditions have persisted since last fall."

While the western Prairies are abnormally dry, Manitoba has been excessively wet this spring, with seeding still incomplete. Without ideal growing conditions for the remainder of the crop year, below-average production is likely for Western Canada.

Wheat, durum and barley crops are currently about 10 days to two weeks behind normal development due to the cold weather. Production estimates have dropped significantly in the past two weeks from what had been average yield expectations. "As cool weather delays crop emergence, the risk of reduced quality or frost damage this fall increases," Burnett said.

Non-durum wheat production is expected to decrease to 16.4 million tonnes from 20 million tonnes in 2008, while durum is predicted to drop to 4.4 million tonnes from 5.5 million tonnes last year. The CWB expects barley production to decrease to 8.9 million tonnes from 11.2 million tonnes in 2008. Last year saw the largest western Canadian all-wheat crop since 1996.

The world wheat crop will be down significantly from last year's record production of 682 million tonnes, particularly given a substantial drop in production in key U.S. winter wheat growing areas. Most key wheat exporting nations are experiencing production problems. Dry conditions have continued in Argentina, which is forecasted to have the lowest planted area in 100 years. This is likely to result in the second consecutive year of record-low Argentine wheat production. The only major exporter expected to increase production is Australia, where timely recent rains have improved growing conditions after a multi-year drought.

The United States Department of Agriculture this week forecast world wheat production at 656 million tonnes. "Any further cuts to global production estimates would result in tighter world supplies, which could be price-supportive," Burnett said.

In North Africa, which is an important market for western Canadian durum, abundant rainfall and near-ideal growing conditions have resulted in a very large durum crop, which will lower this region's import demand.

A weather and crop prospects summary is attached. The Webcast of the weather and crop conditions briefing (including slides) will be available on the CWB Web site for 90 days.

Controlled by western Canadian farmers, the CWB is the largest wheat and barley marketer in the world. One of Canada's biggest exporters, the Winnipeg-based organization sells grain to over 70 countries and returns all sales revenue, less marketing costs, to farmers.

CWB industry briefing
June 11, 2009

Western Canada

Persistent cold weather during the winter and spring, accompanied by very dry conditions in much of Alberta and Saskatchewan, has resulted in significant quality and quantity risks to the western Canadian crop. Cool conditions during the spring have delayed crop development in all regions, regardless of planting dates. Accumulated heat units have been significantly below normal. The cool start to the growing season is likely to result in crops maturing in late August and September, leaving them vulnerable to frost damage.

Poor soil-moisture levels in the western half of the Prairies are the single-largest threat to crop yields, especially in the region covering most of central Alberta and west-central Saskatchewan. This region has been dry since the end of the last growing season. Conversely, conditions in eastern Manitoba have been too wet, with significant planting delays caused by flooding and above-normal rainfall this spring.

Poor soil-moisture conditions in the western Prairies result from a persistent weather pattern that kept the region drier than normal for almost 10 months. Dry conditions at the end of the 2008 growing season continued through the fall, resulting in low sub-soil moisture levels (less than 25 mm) being present at freeze-up for most of west-central Saskatchewan and central Alberta. Winter precipitation in the region was also significantly below normal.

Dry conditions in southern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan were relieved by 10 to 30 mm of rain and snow that fell last weekend. However, dry regions in central Alberta and west-central Saskatchewan still urgently require rainfall. Crop conditions will continue to decline significantly in this region without more rain in the next two weeks. Yield expectations in the dry region are well below normal and a significant cropped area will be abandoned if timely rains are not received. Pasture conditions are also very poor in this region.

Eastern areas of the Prairies are at the opposite end of the moisture spectrum as heavy rains after the 2008 harvest saturated the soil-moisture profile in parts of Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan. Snowfall in the eastern Prairies during the winter was close to normal, while above-normal precipitation in March and April added to the excess moisture in the region. The common feature of the weather this spring across Western Canada has been the cooler-than-normal temperatures. The cool temperatures delayed emergence and early season growth of crops, even in areas where farmers managed to plant early in May.

The planting pace across Western Canada lagged behind the normal pace by one week at the beginning of May due to cool temperatures and, in Manitoba, excess moisture. Progress in Saskatchewan and Alberta during May was closer to normal due to mostly dry weather during this month. While it is important, planting progress is not as significant a factor as the late emergence of crops. Wheat, durum and barley crops are currently 10 days to two weeks behind normal development because of the cool growing conditions. A continuation of the cool weather through the month of June will result in more serious concerns about crop development and increased risk of frost damage in the fall.

Table A shows CWB production estimates, derived through use of a weather based risk model developed by the CWB. Table B shows anticipated yields, while Table C outlines seeded-area estimates, based on reports from CWB Farm Business Representatives and weather conditions.

For wheat, the weather model indicates that the most likely wheat yields fall within the range of 29 to 35.6 bushels per acre, with the most likely yield (as of June 11) being 33.4 bushels per acre. This is compared to the five-year average yield of more than 37 bushel per acre. Durum yield expectations are also lower than the five-year average of 33.7 bushels per acre, with the most likely yield forecast at 30.2 bu/ac. Barley yields are also expected to be below average at 52.5 bu/ac. Production estimates on modeled yields (Table B), lead to projections that all-wheat production for Western Canada will decrease to 20.8 million tonnes, with durum production dropping to 4.4 million tonnes. Barley production is expected to decrease from 11.2 million tonnes last year to 8.9 million tonnes.

World outlook

Production problems in the spring-wheat areas of the United States are similar to the situation in the eastern Prairies of Manitoba. Late planting and some switching to shorter-season crops is expected in eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota. The Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat harvest is underway in Oklahoma and Texas, with below-average yields reported. Crops in both states suffered from a combination of drought and late-season frost, which lowered yields. HRW conditions are better in Kansas, the main HRW producing state. Lower-planted area and significant planting delays in the eastern corn belt of the United States are expected to result in a decline in corn production this year. The wet weather in the Ohio River and Mississippi River valleys is expected to damage the quality of the Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat crop. Wheat output is expected to drop in the U.S. to 54.9 million tonnes – a decrease of more than 13 million tonnes from 2008-09.

One of the most significant droughts last year occurred in Argentina, where production dropped to the lowest level since 1988. The main growing areas of the country remain dry and the sown area to wheat for 2009 is expected to drop to the lowest level on record. The weather in Europe, especially in eastern areas, has been drier than last year, which has resulted in a drop in yield potential. Production prospects in the countries of the Black Sea region are above average, but significantly lower than the record levels seen in 2007-08. Wet conditions across North Africa during the growing season have boosted crop prospects, especially for durum wheat. Conditions in the Middle East and Turkey have improved from last year, with production increasing back to normal levels. Rains in Australia during their fall break have been adequate in most regions, which will result in good establishment of the crop. This should result in an increase in production after three consecutive years of drought conditions. At 656 million tonnes, the United States Department of Agriculture's world wheat estimate for 2009 is significantly lower than last year's record production of 682 million tonnes.

Table A

Table B

Table C

Bruce Burnett
Director, weather and market analysis
Canadian Wheat Board

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