Urbana, Illinois
January 27, 2009
While it now appears that U.S.
soybean exports will exceed current USDA projections, corn
exports could fall short, adding to year-ending stocks and
reducing the need for corn acres in 2009, said a University of
Illinois Extension marketing specialist.
"However, the fate of the Argentine corn crop may have an
impact on U.S. corn exports," said Darrel Good. "Earlier this
month, the USDA reduced the projected size of Argentine
production and exports by nearly 60 million bushels.
"Further reductions are likely and could result in a small
increase in the demand for U.S. corn."
Good's comments came as he reviewed the progress of U.S. corn
and soybean exports during the first five months of the 2008-09
marketing year. During this time, soybean exports and export
sales have been surprisingly large. In contrast, exports and
export sales of corn have been disappointingly small.
At the beginning of the marketing year (September 2008), the
USDA projected marketing year soybean exports at one billion
bushels. That forecast is now at 1.1 billion bushels, only 61
million (5.3 percent) less than the record exports of a year
ago.
In September 2008, the USDA projected corn exports at two
billion bushels. That forecast is now at 1.75 billion bushels,
686 million (28 percent) less than the record shipments of a
year ago.
"As of Jan. 22, 20.5 weeks into the 2008-09 marketing year, the
USDA reported cumulative U.S. soybean export inspections at 627
million bushels, 65 million larger than the cumulative total of
a year earlier," said Good. "Through November 2008, cumulative
Census Bureau estimates of soybean exports were 16 million
bushels larger than the USDA export inspection estimates, about
the same margin as last year.
"The larger shipments to date reflect the rapid pace of imports
by China. As of Jan. 15, exports to China totaled 352 million
bushels, 39 percent more than exports of a year earlier. Nearly
60 percent of U.S. exports through Jan. 15 were to China,
compared to 47 percent last year."
To reach the USDA projection of 1.1 billion bushels for the
year, shipments to all destinations during the final 31.5 weeks
of the year need to average only 14.5 million bushels per week,
he added.
"Last year, export shipments averaged 17.7 million bushels per
week during the final 31.5 weeks of the year," he said.
As of Jan. 15, 276 million bushels of U.S. soybeans had been
sold for export, but not yet shipped. Unshipped sales a year
earlier totaled 297 million bushels. Assuming all of the
outstanding sales are actually shipped, only 180 million bushels
of new sales are required to reach the 1.1 billion bushels
projected by the USDA.
"Earlier this month, the USDA projected the 2009 Argentine
soybean harvest at 1.82 billion bushels, about 37 million less
than the December projection," he said. "The projection of
Argentine exports was lowered by 11 million bushels.
"Continuing dry weather in parts of Argentina appears likely to
further reduce the prospective size of that crop, perhaps
resulting in even less competition for U.S. soybeans in the
export market."
Good said that it now appears likely that U.S. exports will
exceed the current projection of 1.1 billion bushels, resulting
in smaller year-ending stocks if the projected level of domestic
crush is reached.
"That projection of 1.685 billion bushels is 6.4 percent less
than the crush of last year," he noted. "The crush during the
first quarter of the marketing year was 10 percent below that of
a year earlier.
"Crush during the last three quarters of the year needs to be
only 5.2 percent smaller than the crush of a year earlier in
order to reach the projected level."
As of Jan. 20, the USDA reported cumulative marketing year corn
exports of 617 million bushels, 412 million bushels less than
the total of a year earlier. Through November 2008, the
cumulative Census Bureau export estimate was about 40 million
bushels larger than the USDA export inspections estimate, about
the same difference as a year earlier.
"The decline in shipments so far this year--through Jan.
15--reflects sharp declines in exports to Egypt--70 percent,
South Korea--43 percent, Taiwan--36 percent, and Mexico--21
percent," said Good. "Shipments to Japan, the largest U.S.
customer, were about 2 percent larger than shipments of a year
ago. Shipments to Japan accounted for 39 percent of the U.S.
total, compared to 23 percent at the same time last year.
"The major factor contributing to the decline in U.S. corn
exports is the large increase in corn production outside the
United States. The USDA currently projects that production at
19.04 billion bushels, about 900 million bushels larger than
production of a year ago."
Another factor contributing to the decline in U.S. corn exports
may be the sharp increase in feeding of wheat, he added. The
USDA projects that feed use of wheat in the rest of the rest of
the world during the current marketing year will be 835 million
bushels larger than feed use of last year.
As of Jan. 15, about 304 million bushels of U.S. corn had been
sold for export, but not yet shipped. A year ago, outstanding
sales stood at 773 million bushels. To reach the USDA export
projection of 1.75 billion bushels, an addition 790 million
bushels of U.S. corn must be sold for export, an average of 25
million bushels per week.
"Shipments need to average about 35 million bushels per week,"
he said. "Shipments have reached or exceeded that level in only
three weeks so far this year, and all of those were last fall."
By Bob Sampson, University of
Illinois |
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