Washington, DC
January 2, 2009
Source:
International Cotton Advisory
Committee
World cotton mill use is forecast
at 24.5 million tons in 2008/09, down 7% from 2007/08. One of
the most significant developments in 2008/09 is the expected 10%
reduction in Chinese cotton mill use, to 9.8 million tons. China
(Mainland) is the largest cotton consumer, accounting for around
40% of world cotton mill use. Cotton mill use is also projected
down in India and Pakistan, the second and third largest cotton
consumers.
As a result of the decline in world cotton mill use, world trade
is expected to fall by 17% in 2008/09, to 6.9 million tons. This
would be the lowest level in six seasons. In particular, Chinese
imports are projected at 1.5 million tons in 2008/09, down by 1
million tons from last season. Exporters are being forced to
carry larger stocks than desired, putting pressure on world
cotton prices.
The ICAC Price Model 2007 forecasts the 2008/09 season-average
Cotlook A Index at 68 cents per pound, down by 7% from last
season. However, the Secretariat believes that the 2008/09
season-average Cotlook A Index may be in the lower half of the
95% confidence interval, between 61 and 68 cents per pound.
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
|
. |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
|
. |
Million Tons |
Million Bales |
|
Production |
26.64 |
26.23 |
24.1 |
122.3 |
120.5 |
111 |
|
Consumption |
26.49 |
26.37 |
24.5 |
121.6 |
121.1 |
112 |
|
Exports |
8.12 |
8.35 |
6.9 |
37.3 |
38.4 |
32 |
|
Ending Stocks |
12.52 |
12.25 |
11.9 |
57.5 |
56.3 |
55 |
|
Cotlook A Index* |
59.15 |
72.90 |
68** |
59.15 |
72.90 |
68** |
|
* Season-average Cotlook A Index
(U.S. cents per pound).
** The price projection for 2008/09 is based on the ending
stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in
2006/07, in 2007/08 (estimate), and in 2008/09 (projection), and
on the ending stocks/consumption ratio in China (Mainland) in
2006/07 and in 2007/08 (estimate). 95% confidence
interval: 61 to 74 cents per pound.
The International Cotton
Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of
cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the
Committee publishes information related to world cotton
production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical
information on cotton production technology |
|
