Rome, Italy
February 25, 2009
But economic slowdown will
affect the poor and their access to basic foods
The 2008 rice bumper harvest is coming to a close with
better-than-expected production that could help ease consumer
prices, FAO said in its
February Rice Market Monitor. But the agency warned that the
global economic slowdown could outweigh the gains for the
poorest of the world's rice consumers, because of falling
incomes and rising job insecurity.
FAO currently predicts global paddy production in the 2008
season to rise to 683 million tonnes, 3.5 percent more than in
2007 and the fastest rate of growth for three years. The
increase will be due to a 2.2 percent increase in the amount of
land cultivated globally as farmers and governments reacted to
the high prices. The global 2008 rice harvest ends in Asian
northern hemisphere countries around May.
Rapid increases in the price of rice -- the staple food for
around two and a half billion people - and other cereals played
a major role in the food price shocks last year, characterised
by high fuel and fertilizer prices that triggered political
unrest in many countries.
Down but still high
Global rice prices for 2008 ended the year on average 80 percent
higher than in 2007 despite the steady decline since their peak
levels in May, FAO said. The price of a tonne of the benchmark
Thai white 100 percent second grade was $611 in January compared
to $385 in the same month in 2008 having risen to a peak of
$963.
"One positive effect of the high rice prices in 2008 was that
farmers and governments took up the challenges and opportunities
and planted more, boosting production despite high fuel and
fertilizer costs and a scarcity of quality seed," said FAO
Senior Economist Concepcion Calpe.
Favourable weather in many parts of the world also helped to
sustain yields in the face of high fuel and fertilizer prices.
Slowdown to hit consumers
Soaring rice prices last year led governments round the world to
take a variety of measures to try and dampen the effects on the
poor.
"If last year they (governments) had to intervene on two
conflicting fronts, both to stimulate rice production and to
keep rice affordable to consumers, they may face even greater
challenges in 2009 in the context of the severe global economic
slowdown," FAO said in its report.
"In this context, governments may again have to intervene, this
time to sustain rice producer prices while also protecting the
purchasing power of their populations, at a moment when demands
for public help from other sectors are quickly intensifying."
Much of the global production gain for the 2008 paddy season is
expected to be concentrated in Asia, with bumper harvests
expected in both large and small producing countries.
African harvest soars
African countries are also forecasting exceptional results and
rice production is expected to rise by an impressive 18 percent
due to government support and increased use of new,
high-yielding and resilient seed varieties. As a result, rice
imports to Africa are now expected to decline to their lowest
level since 2004.
The excellent 2008 paddy crop is expected to lead to a strong
rebuilding of world rice reserves this year to 118 million
tonnes, in milled rice equivalent, the highest level since 2002
and nine million tonnes more than in 2008. Traditional importing
countries are forecast to replenish their reserves by over one
million tonnes to some 20 million tonnes, but most of the world
stock increase is likely to be concentrated among exporting
countries.
Although lower prices are good for consumers, export prices
below US$400 per tonne for top quality white rice could
adversely affect producers and hamper polices geared towards
self-sufficiency in many importing countries, FAO said. |
|
