Rome, Italy
February 13, 2009
Early indications point to a
reduction in global cereal output in 2009 from the 2008 record,
according to FAO's latest Crop
Prospects and Food Situation report. Smaller plantings and
adverse weather look likely to bring grain production down in
most of the world's major producers.
While conditions are generally favourable for winter wheat
throughout Europe and the United States, planted area in these
countries has declined, reflecting the prospect of sharply
reduced returns compared to last year, combined with persisting
high input costs, the report said.
In low-income food-deficit countries, prospects for early 2009
cereal crops point to lower output. The early outlook is for a
smaller maize crop in southern Africa. Prolonged dry weather is
adversely affecting wheat prospects in Asia, with almost half of
China's winter wheat area suffering from severe drought and
precipitation also inadequate in India. Overall, however, much
will depend on the rice crop yet to be planted in Asia.
In South America, 2008 wheat production was halved by drought in
Argentina, and persistent dry weather is adversely affecting
prospects for the region's 2009 coarse grains.
Stocks up...
Based on the latest estimates of cereal production in 2008 and
projected utilization in 2008/09, FAO forecasts world cereal
carryovers at 496 million tonnes going into the new 2009/10
seasons, the highest level since 2002.
FAO reports an easing of the cereal supply and demand situation
in the low-income food-deficit countries as a group, following
above-average harvests in 2008.
...but prices still high in most countries
Despite the decline in international prices in the second half
of 2008, domestic food prices remain very high in several
developing countries, affecting access to food among low-income
population groups. In Southern Africa and Central America,
prices of main food commodities have continued to rise or have
not decreased in recent months. In Western and Eastern African
countries, prices have fallen significantly since the beginning
of the harvests in September-October, but by January they were
well above their levels of a year ago. The situation is worse
for imported rice and wheat, important staples in these
sub-regions, as prices are still on the increase. Prices of rice
and wheat also remain high in several poor countries in Asia,
including Afghanistan, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Countries in crisis
Food crises persist in 32 countries around the world. In
addition, the food situation is of particular concern in the
Gaza Strip as a result of the recent conflict, FAO said.
In Eastern Africa, more than 18 million people face serious food
insecurity due either to conflict, unrest, adverse weather or a
combined effect, while in Southern Africa the total number of
food insecure is estimated at some 8.7 million. In Kenya,
Somalia and Zimbabwe, the food security situation is very
serious following drought-reduced crops, civil insecurity and/or
economic crises.
Click
HERE
for the complete list of countries requiring external
assistance.
Biofuels
FAO's latest forecast for the 2008/09 (July/June) marketing year
points to further increases in the use of cereals for biofuels
production - a total of 104 million tonnes, up 22 percent from
the 2007/08 estimated level, representing 4.6 percent of world
cereal production.
In the United States, total use is forecast to increase to
roughly 93 million tonnes (91 million tonnes maize), up 19
percent from the 2007/08 level. Earlier forecasts expected an
even faster growth in maize utilization for biofuels, but the
steep decline in oil prices and the economic slowdown have
lowered those expectations in recent months. |
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