Australia
August 14, 2009
The world wheat market has
continued its downward trend, on the back of increased supply
estimates and falling demand, with the result that
AWB has revised its price
forecast for 2009/10 season wheat downward by $25 a tonne,
giving an estimated pool return (EPR) for benchmark grade APW
wheat of $265-275 a tonne (FOB, excl GST).
AWB’s Australian Commodity Management spokesman, Stuart
Richardson, said that the whole international market was in “go
slow”, with buyers reluctant to commit when they can see ample
supply.
“You don’t like to talk about falling prices, but that is the
reality of the market at present and there is just no upward
pressure,” Mr Richardson said.
“When there is so much supply, the buyers hang back and only
commit for their immediate needs, hoping for lower prices next
time; it’s a spiral that continues until there is a shock to
break it.
“Crops in the northern hemisphere have produced well, with
strong numbers from the United States showing increased supply
in an environment where their wheat exports are struggling for
demand.
“In the European Union and Black Sea region the harvest is
progressing steadily; EU production estimates have increased
again and while the number for Russia is down a little, a larger
percentage of milling wheat in Ukraine this season means there
is still a very large volume of Black Sea wheat for export.
“Add the strong Australian dollar to the equation and you don’t
have an attractive picture for Australian wheat prices in
comparison to the last two seasons – still historically high,
but not at the levels growers would like to see,” Mr Richardson
said.
For specialist grades, AWB’s EPR for 2009/10 noodle wheat ANW1
is $250-260 a tonne (FOB, excl GST) and durum DR1 is $325-335 a
tonne (FOB, excl GST) .
Estimated returns for AWB’s 2008/09 wheat pools are holding
steady, with the EPR for APW on $325 a tonne in the Western Pool
and $330 a tonne in the Eastern Pool (FOB, excl GST).
* WEA disclaimer - "AWB’s ability to export wheat in bulk is
dependant on being granted reaccreditation under the Wheat
Export Accreditation Scheme." |
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