Lubbock, Texas
April 3, 2009
Texas
Tech University agricultural economists predict India will
remain in that position for years, climbing to 25.3 million
acres in the next decade, up from 23.1 million acres now.
Written by Norman Martin
India became the second largest cotton producer in the world two
years ago, and annual forecasts by Texas Tech University
agricultural economists predict it will remain in that position
for years, climbing to 25.3 million acres in the next decade, up
from 23.1 million acres now.
“U.S. cotton growers competing with India for profitable Chinese
markets are finding a changing playing field as technology and
improved productivity continue to push India’s cotton yields
upward,” said Darren Hudson, director of Texas Tech’s Cotton
Economics Research Institute.
Today, China leads the world cotton production with India and
the United States at second and third, respectively. Over the
next 10 years, China’s share of world cotton production is
expected to decline by 3 percent while India is forecasted to
increase by 2 percent.
“Harvested cotton area in India is projected to jump due to the
high net return in cotton and high minimum support prices
recently announced by the Indian government,” Hudson said.
As a result of the faltering global economy, demand for textile
products dwindled and cotton prices began to tumble last fall.
In response, India’s government increased the minimum support
price it provides its cotton farmers by 35 percent to 45
percent.
India’s production gains are projected to come from both
increased areas and improved yields. The upward trend in yield
is projected to continue as more Bt cotton varieties are
approved for cultivation, as varieties are adopted to a wider
range of cotton growing areas, and as utilization rates
increase.
“One of the things that has been responsible for the tremendous
increase in cotton production in India has been their rapid and
overwhelming acceptance of the new genetically engineered
varieties of cotton,” said Norman Hopper, Texas Tech’s Associate
Dean and Piper Professor in the College of Agricultural Sciences
and Natural Resources.
In 2003, India was a net importer of cotton despite having the
world’s largest planting acreage. While the nation might have
planted a lot of cotton, it also had one of the world’s lowest
yields per acre. Six years later, India’s cotton yields have
soared, thanks largely to the introduction of Bt cotton.
Bt crops have been genetically altered to produce toxins that
kill some insects. The toxins are produced in nature by the
widespread bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis, hence the
abbreviation Bt.
CERI produces its estimates annually in conjunction with the
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the
University of Missouri and Iowa State University, as well as the
Agricultural and Food Policy Center at Texas A&M University. The
institute releases annual 10-year forecasts for each of the
major agricultural crops as well as farm income. |
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