Washington, DC
April 1, 2009
Source:
International Cotton Advisory
Committee
The Secretariat of the ICAC
forecasts a 2009/10 season-average Cotlook A Index of 63 cents
per pound, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 56 to 79
cents per pound. However, major uncertainties regarding
projected cotton trade in 2009/10 pose substantial downward
risks to this forecast.
The Secretariat of the ICAC believes that the 2009/10
season-average Cotlook A Index is more likely to be within the
range of 56 to 63 cents per pound.
In 2009/10, world cotton production is expected to continue to
decline, for the third consecutive season, to 23.6 million tons.
World cotton mill use is forecast stable at 23.7 million tons in
2009/10, while world cotton imports are expected to increase to
7.3 million tons. World ending stocks are expected to decline
slightly to 12.5 million tons by the end of July 2010.
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
|
. |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2009/10 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2009/10 |
|
. |
Million Tons |
Million Bales |
|
Production |
26.22 |
23.7 |
23.6 |
120.4 |
109 |
108 |
|
Consumption |
26.29 |
23.6 |
23.7 |
120.7 |
108 |
109 |
|
Exports |
8.34 |
6.2 |
7.3 |
38.3 |
28 |
33 |
|
Ending Stocks |
12.50 |
12.6 |
12.5 |
57.4 |
58 |
57 |
Cotlook A Index*
(season-average, U.S. cents/lb) |
72.90 |
60* |
63** |
72.90 |
60* |
63** |
|
* The price projection for 2008/09
is based on the ending stocks/consumption ratio in the
world-less-China (Mainland) in 2006/07, in 2007/08 (estimate),
and in 2008/09 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports
to world imports in 2007/08 (estimate) and 2008/09 (projection),
and on the average price for the first eight months of 2008/09.
95% confidence interval: 56 to 63 cents per pound.
** The price projection for 2009/10 is based on the ending
stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in
2007/08 (estimate), in 2008/09 (projection), and in 2009/10
(projection), and on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world
imports in 2008/09 (projection) and 2009/10 (projection).
95% confidence interval: 56 to 79 cents per pound.
The International Cotton
Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of
cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the
Committee publishes information related to world cotton
production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical
information on cotton production technology |
|
