Los Baños, The Philippines
September 19, 2008
World can avert major problems
but must act now
Declining agricultural
productivity and continued growing demand have brought the world
food situation to a crossroads. Failure to act now through a
wholesale reinvestment in agriculture—including research into
improved technologies, infrastructure development, and training
and education of agricultural scientists and trainers—could lead
to a long-term crisis that makes the price spikes of 2008 seem a
mere blip.
This stark warning, in line with calls from organizations such
as the World Bank, the World Food Program, and Asian Development
Bank (ADB), was issued by members of the Board of Trustees (BOT)
of the International Rice Research
Institute (IRRI) following their meeting on 16-19 September
at Institute headquarters in Los Baños, Philippines.
The global community needs to remember two key things," said BOT
Chair Elizabeth Woods. "First, that growth in agricultural
productivity is the only way to ensure that people have access
to enough affordable food. Second, that achieving this is a
long-term effort. A year or two of extra funding for
agricultural research is not enough. To ensure that improved
technologies flow from the research and development pipeline, a
sustained re-investment in agriculture is crucial."
Dr. Woods pointed out that the annual rice yield growth rate has
dropped to less than 1% in recent years, compared with 2-3%
during the Green Revolution period of 1967-90. Based on
projected income and population growth, annual productivity
growth of almost 1.5% will be needed at least until 2020.
The meeting coincided with the release of a report by the Food
and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations stating that
higher food prices are partly to blame for the number of hungry
people growing by 75 million to around 925 million worldwide—and
further jeopardizing the UN Millennium Development Goal of
halving hunger and poverty by 2015.
Another report, released this week by the ADB, argued that, for
Asian countries to prevent future food price surges, agriculture
needs wide-scale structural reform. This report also warned
that, with demand remaining higher than supply, any supply shock
would further increase cereal prices.
An ADB report released in August increased the cut-off level for
poverty from US$1 per day to $1.35 per day, meaning that
millions more people are trapped in poverty than previously
thought. Disturbingly, the new measure does not take into
account the higher food and fuel prices of 2008, which,
according to some estimates, have plunged a further 100 million
people below the poverty line. Although the export price of rice
has settled from more than $1,000 per ton in May to around $700
per ton, it is still double the price of one year ago.
The current crisis serves as a timely wakeup call for
governments, multilateral organizations, and donors to refocus
on agriculture. Various national and international bodies have
called for a second Green Revolution to feed the world in the
face of a growing population and shrinking land base for
agricultural uses.
Unlike the first Green Revolution, in which productivity growth
was achieved with the introduction of modern varieties in tandem
with assured irrigation and inputs (such as fertilizer), and
guaranteed prices, the second Green Revolution needs to achieve
the same goal in the face of several 21st-century challenges.
These challenges include water and land scarcity, environmental
degradation, skyrocketing input prices, and globalized
marketplaces, all within the context of global climate change.
In short, the second Green Revolution will have to expand
productivity sustainably, with fewer resources.
The International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) is the
world's leading rice research and training center. Based in the
Philippines, with offices in 13 other countries, IRRI is an
autonomous, nonprofit institution focused on improving the
well-being of present and future generations of rice farmers and
consumers, particularly those with low incomes, while preserving
natural resources. IRRI is one of 15 centers funded through the
Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research
(CGIAR), an association of public and private donor agencies (www.cgiar.org).
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