Bruxelles, Belgium
October 9, 2008
Source: The
European Crop Protection Association (ECPA)
If the new restrictions come into
effect:
• Wheat and potato prices will increase by at least 20%
• EU to become net importer of key crops
• The cost to be borne by European consumers
A study released today by the European Centre for Agricultural,
Regional and Environmental Policy Research (EuroCARE) concludes
that new legislation being tabled in Brussels will have a
profound upward effect on the prices European consumers pay for
food. The legislation will drastically reduce the pest
management options available to European farmers and
consequently yields will drop steeply, driving up prices.
According to the research, should MEPs push ahead with the new
legislation set to replace Directive 91/414/EEC, so many
critical pest management tools will be removed from use that
prices for all agricultural produce are likely to increase,
building on expert assessments for likely yield losses. In the
worst case scenario, prices for cereals and vegetables could
rise by 73% and 104% respectively. Even the most conservative
product-loss scenario examined by the researchers will to lead
to price increases of at least 20% for key staples such as wheat
and potatoes.
"These increases are not surprising, given the current pressures
on food prices and the importance of the EU to international
markets. The price increases forecasted in the study are also in
line with recent experience. In 2007, for example, world wheat
supply was about 20 million tonnes lower than in 2005 and prices
went up by more than 100%", says Dr. Marcel Adenaeuer from
EuroCARE, Bonn.
With such major impacts anticipated, researchers predict that
much of European agricultural production could be lost to other
countries, jeopardizing the position of the European Union as a
net exporter of key crops. For example, wheat production is
likely to increase in USA, Mexico, Russia, Belarus and Ukraine
as well as South Africa, China or Australia - as it drops in
Europe.
Friedhelm Schmider, Director General, of the European Crop
Protection Association, comments: "All crops need protection
from disease and pests. If you remove the tools farmers use to
protect their crops, yields will go down - and prices will go
up. This research proves that banning pest management options
will, in the end, hit consumers in the pocket."
"EU policymakers haven't yet considered the full impact of this
legislation on the cost of our food. At a time of heightened
concern about economic stability and record food prices, with
food riots in some parts of the world, not examining the
consequences of this legislation will result in policy
disconnected from reality."
"Given the findings of the EuroCARE study, the European Crop
Protection Association is calling for the European Parliament
and Commission to request an independent, comprehensive impact
assessment on the proposed pest management restriction criteria
from the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Europe is the
world's top producer and top exporter of food, an achievement
which is built upon a foundation of effective pest management.
Banning the tools without proper scientific consideration is
fraught with risk.," adds Schmider.
The EuroCARE research builds on other studies, which raise
concern about the impacts of the new pesticide legislation
proposals. Earlier this year, the independent Italian research
institute Nomisma warned that under the proposed legislation,
yields of wheat, potatoes, cereals and wine grapes in Europe
could decrease by 29%, 33%, 20% and 10% respectively by 2020.
Similar expert based yield losses, between 10% and 77% depending
on scenario and crop, have been fed into the agricultural sector
model CAPRI to simulate the resulting price effects.
BACKGROUND
For the last two decades, the Authorisation Directive 91/414/EEC
of 15th July 1991 has regulated the agrochemical substances that
farmers use in the EU. This legislation is currently being
revised in Brussels, including proposals to ban many substances
currently in use.
The study "Additional constraints for plant protection: Price
Impacts on European agricultural markets" reviews the effects of
the proposed legislation based on the European Commission's
proposals, and two scenarios proposed earlier this year by the
European Parliament (exclusion criteria and candidates for
substitution).
Findings indicate that under the Commission proposal, the prices
for potatoes and wheat will increase by about 20%. Under the
Parliament proposals, potato price increases vary from 33% to
about 58%. In these circumstances, wheat prices increase more
from 40% to about 70%. As a result researchers forecast that
most of EU production will be lost to other countries, thus
jeopardising the position of the European Union as a net
exporter.
The study was performed using the CAPRI (Common Agricultural
Policy Regionalised Impact) modelling system. The model is a
well-known instrument to quantitatively assess the impacts of
changes in political, socio-economical or environmental drivers
on the agricultural sector. The core of the model is a set of
behavioural functions representing farmers, the processing
industry, and consumers of agricultural goods. In view of
repercussions on international agricultural markets it covers
the whole world but it is more detailed for European
agriculture.
The European Crop Protection Association (ECPA) represents
the crop protection industry interests at European level. Its
members include all major companies and national associations
across Europe. For more information:
www.ecpa.eu. |
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