Washington, DC
May 1, 2008
Source:
International Cotton Advisory
Committee
Global cotton mill use is expected
to remain stable at 26.7 million tons in 2008/09. The main
reasons for the stagnation in mill use are slower world economic
growth and higher prices of cotton relative to polyester.
World cotton production is also projected essentially unchanged
in 2008/09, at 26.2 million tons. A significant decline in
production expected in the United States and Brazil could be
offset by increases projected in Asia, West Africa and
Australia.
World ending stocks are forecast down by 4% in 2008/09 to 11.4
million tons.
Despite stagnant consumption, world imports are expected to
increase by 6% to
8.6 million tons due to projected higher imports by China
(Mainland).
The Secretariat, using the ICAC Price Model 2007, forecasts a
season-average Cotlook A Index of 77 cents per pound in 2008/09,
4 cents higher than the average expected in 2007/08 (the 95%
confidence interval is between 64 and 90 cents per pound).
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
|
. |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
|
. |
Million Tons |
Million Bales |
|
Production |
26.67 |
26.18 |
26.2 |
122.5 |
120.2 |
120 |
|
Consumption |
26.70 |
26.71 |
26.7 |
122.6 |
122.7 |
123 |
|
Exports |
8.12 |
8.13 |
8.6 |
37.3 |
37.3 |
39 |
|
Ending Stocks |
12.42 |
11.9 |
11.4 |
57.1 |
54.6 |
52 |
|
Stock adjustment |
-0.02 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
0.0 |
0 |
|
Cotlook A Index* |
59.15 |
73* |
77*** |
59.15 |
73** |
77*** |
|
* Season-average Cotlook A Index
(U.S. cents per pound).
** The price projection for 2007/08 represents the Secretariat
judgment, based on the average price for the first nine months
and projected price variations during the rest of the season.
*** The price projection for 2008/09 is based on the ending
stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in
2006/07, in
2007/08 (estimate), and in 2008/09 (projection), and on the
ending stocks/consumption ratio in China (Mainland) in 2006/07
and in 2007/08 (estimate). 95% confidence interval: 64 to 90
cents per pound.
PDF version:
http://www.icac.org/cotton_info/publications/press/2008/pr_may_08.pdf
The International Cotton
Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of
cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the
Committee publishes information related to world cotton
production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical
information on cotton production technology |
|
