Rome, Italy and Cairo, Egypt
March 3, 2008
The hungry and poor will be
mostly affected – FAO meeting debates impact on the region
Agriculture in the Near East is likely to suffer losses because
of high temperature, droughts, floods and soil degradation
threatening the food security of many countries,
FAO said today.
Hunger and malnutrition caused by climate change will most
probably affect those who are already poor, malnourished or
dependent on local food production, according to a report that
will be discussed at the FAO Regional Conference for the Near
East (1-5 March 2008), held in Cairo.
The Middle East and North Africa are particularly exposed to
water shortages. An additional 155 to 600 million people may
suffer an increase in water stress in North Africa with a 3°
Celsius temperature rise.
“The number of dry days is expected to increase everywhere in
the region,” said Wulf Killmann, chair of FAO’s working group on
climate change. “The number of frost days should decrease, while
heat waves in the region’s more continental areas might become
more frequent. As a result, the length of growing seasons should
decrease. More efficient water and energy use, sustainable
agriculture, better forest management and afforestation are key
measures to mitigate the effects of climate change,” Killmann
added.
Adding to the stress
Changes in temperature, rainfall and climatic extremes will only
add to the stress on agricultural resources in a region, where
land availability and degradation, food price shocks and
population growth are already a major concern. Arable land is
limited in the arid and semi-arid areas that cover most of the
region, making agriculture potentially highly vulnerable to
climate change.
Shifts in rainfall patterns will affect crops, particularly
rice, in many countries in the Near East. Yemen is particularly
at risk given its existing low income levels, rapidly growing
population and acute water shortage.
Many of the region’s irrigation systems are under considerable
environmental strain due to salinity, water logging or
overexploitation of groundwater. Groundwater, including
non-renewable fossil water, is of primary importance in most
countries of the region.
Risk of conflict
Competition for water within the region and across its borders
may grow, carrying the risk of conflict. Some parts of the
region, particularly the Nile Delta and the Gulf coast of the
Arabian Peninsula, are particularly vulnerable to flooding from
rising sea levels.
Due to complex interactions of many factors, crop growing may
become unsustainable in some areas. For example, maize yields in
North Africa could fall by between 15 and 25 percent with 3°C
rise in temperature.
“Once temperature increases reach 3 or 4°C, the impacts will be
strongest across Western Asia and the Middle East, where yields
of the predominant regional crops may fall by 23 to 35 percent
with weak carbon fertilization, or 15 to 20 percent with strong
carbon fertilization. In West Asia, climate change is likely to
cause severe water stress throughout this century,” the report
said.
Many countries in the region have been major wheat and rice
importers. Climate change may increase this dependence on
imports.
Livestock pest and disease distribution and their transmission
patterns will be altered, with epidemics almost certain.
FAO urged countries in the Near East to address the imminent
threats related to climate change. “Agriculture should be
promoted as a key player in the reduction of greenhouse gases.
Conservation agriculture, water harvesting, afforestation,
sustainable management of forests and rangelands, soil storage
of carbon, improved fertilizer use and the careful promotion of
bioenergy in climatically suitable areas should be applied to
mitigate climate change,” Killmann said.
FAO works with governments, rural communities and research
institutions and provides global data, analytical tools and
models, crop forecasting and impact monitoring and information
on climate change related risks.
High-level conference
FAO will host a high-level international conference on world
food security, climate change and bioenergy in Rome (3-5 June
2008).
Heads of State and Government, as well as ministers of
agriculture, environment, trade, energy, water, forests and
fisheries will address these issues.
“It is a unique opportunity for policy-makers to broaden the
perspective and to discuss how climate change affects
agriculture - and how agriculture can contribute to reduce
climate change,” said Alexander Müller, FAO Assistant
Director-General. “Climate change threatens the livelihoods of
millions of people in rural areas. But improved farming also has
a key role to play reducing greenhouse gases.” |
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