Wellington, New Zealand
May 27, 2008
A new report released by
MAF New Zealand shows that not all of the effects of climate
change are bad for the agricultural sectors. In some areas,
production will potentially increase.
The EcoClimate report, Costs and Benefits of Climate Change and
Adaptation to Climate Change in New Zealand. Agriculture: What
do we know so far?, examines what the likely impacts of a
changing climate on pasture productivity and the economic effect
on dairy, sheep and beef farming could be.
Using downscaled global climate change models, the EcoClimate
report makes projections on future temperatures, rainfall and
droughts across New Zealand.
"The primary production sector is the engine room of our economy
and it will be affected by climate change driven by global
warming. The first steps in understanding what this could mean
for future production in our agricultural sectors have been
taken, with the release of the EcoClimate report," says Mike
Jebson,
MAF’s Director Natural Resources Policy.
"For an average year in the future, the predicted changes are
small when averaged across the country, but different parts of
the country are affected differently, with the west becoming
wetter, the east drier and all of the country becoming warmer.
We expect production will increase in Southland and on the West
Coast of the South Island but decrease in some North Island East
Coast areas and Northland.
"The warmer climate may lead to earlier start for pasture growth
in late winter or spring. Farmers may choose to respond by
bringing forward lambing or sowing crops earlier. The EcoClimate
report provides us a starting point for further analysis and
helps the primary production sector to start planning for the
future," says Mr Jebson.
"However, there will still be some challenges for farmers and
the need to adapt to the changing climate. Of concern is the
projected national decline in production for the driest years in
the future, which will be worse than the driest years between
1972–2002," continues Mr Jebson.
"This puts more emphasis on the need to drought proof farms in
those areas to ensure our farming systems remain resilient and
profitable," says Mr Jebson.
The EcoClimate Report was produced by a consortium of including
researchers from NIWA, AgResearch, Motu, Landcare, Infometrics
and GNS.
The report is available at
http://www.maf.govt.nz/climatechange/slm/ag-production/ . |
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