 Paris,
France and Rome, Italy
June 2, 2008
This edition covers the outlook
for commodity markets during the 2008 to 2017 period, and brings
together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both
Organisations. The report analyses world market trends for the
main agricultural products, as well as biofuels. It provides an
assessment of agricultural market prospects for production,
consumption, trade, stocks and prices of the included
commodities.
This is the
fourteenth edition of the Agricultural Outlook and the fourth
time it has been prepared jointly by the Organisation for
Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
This edition covers the outlook for commodity markets during the
2008 to 2017 period, and brings together the commodity, policy
and country expertise of both Organisations. The report analyses
world market trends for the main agricultural products, as well
as biofuels. It provides an assessment of agricultural market
prospects for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices
of the included commodities.
World
commodity prices at higher average levels
This Outlook was prepared in a period when agricultural and
food prices have risen to record-high levels, at least in
nominal terms. The report discusses the reasons for these
price hikes and finds that some are of a temporary nature,
notably adverse weather conditions in some key producing
countries and regions, while others are likely to prove more
durable. The Outlook concludes that prices are unlikely to
be sustained at current high levels and that farmers around
the world will respond by boosting plantings and increasing
supplies, with a return to more normal growing conditions in
the main producing regions.
However, it also points to growing feedstock demand from an
increasing biofuel industry, sustained high oil prices,
continued strong growth in food demand as incomes rise in
emerging economies and historically low global stocks as
some of the factors which will keep prices higher on average
than in the past decade and possibly more volatile. The
report provides a quantitative assessment of the main
factors that will help sustain higher prices over the coming
decade and shows that growth in feedstock demand for biofuel
production is one of the important ones. The projections and
past trends are presented in the statistical annex, and can
be viewed in more detail at on this website (www.agri-outlook.org)
The market projections cover OECD countries, as well as
other key agricultural players including India, China,
Brazil, the Russian Federation and Argentina, and many other
non-OECD countries and regions. In total, the projections
encompass 39 countries and 19 regions. The projections are
based on specific assumptions regarding global macroeconomic
conditions; population growth; national agricultural,
biofuel and trade policies; production technologies; and
normal weather conditions. The Agricultural Outlook provides
a picture of how agricultural markets could evolve in the
coming decade given the underlying assumptions.
The highlights
of “Agricultural Outlook 2008-2017” are now available in PDF
format at
www.agri-outlook.org
The forthcoming complete report can be purchased from the OECD
Online Bookshop
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