Chicago, Illinois
July 1, 2008
Today,
Lanworth released their
Real-time Acres and Yield projections to the public for the
first time since sharing them with customers. Lanworth's
analysis correctly predicted that USDA's National Agricultural
Statistics Service would increase its estimate of corn planted
acres and decrease its estimate of soybean acres in today's
Acreage report. Lanworth also correctly predicted that NASS
would report the area of corn and soybeans damaged by June
flooding in the Midwest to be significantly less than most
analysts expected.
Lanworth projected a 1% increase in corn acres and a 1% decrease
in soybean acres based on satellite image analysis of the Corn
Belt states of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, and
Michigan. Lanworth’s estimates were verified in today's Acreage
report, when the NASS increased its planted corn acreage
estimate by 1.5% to 87.3 million acres and reduced its planted
soybean acreage by 0.6% to 74.5 million acres since its last
report in March. Most analysts had expected USDA to lower
planted area of corn in today's report.
“There was much confusion surrounding this year’s Acreage report
involving the usual suspects - total planted acres and planting
ratios of corn, soy, and wheat. But what really threw people was
the unusual weather and then the massive flooding,” said Nick
Kouchoukos, Lanworth's director of information services. “Our
system was able to take each of these factors into consideration
and allowed us again to map acres planted to the major crops.”
Lanworth combined its maps of planted acres of corn and soybeans
with other satellite data sets to estimate crop damage and loss
due to severe flooding in Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri.
Lanworth's total damage assessment is slightly more optimistic
than NASS reported today, but the agency will undertake a
special survey in July to refine its analysis. Lanworth will do
the same.
“There is a lot to look forward to in the coming season –
weather will be especially important as farmers work to manage
late planted and flood-affected crops,” Kouchoukos explained.
“We will be monitoring crop progress carefully and looking for
replanting across flooded areas as we prepare our yield and
production analyses.”
Lanworth is an information technology company specializing in
the application of aerial and satellite remote sensing to
natural resource management. Lanworth assists clients in making
informed decisions in the forestry, government, agriculture,
real estate, electricity, gas, and transportation industries.
Lanworth supplies its clients with detailed geographic and
resource information on a global scale.
Lanworth uses its own tool, the Real-time Acres and Yield (RAY)
portal, to relay its findings to clients, in addition to formal
reports issued ten days before USDA estimates are released.
Their numbers are then updated five days later.
“We don’t contend with the USDA,” said Kouchoukos. “Rather, we
complement their reports with hard data that has one distinct
advantage – we get a picture of the USDA’s final numbers before
they do.”
While the USDA’s process is based on field surveys, implying a
significant amount of trial and error, Lanworth’s methodology
provides early insight into the very factors that require the
USDA to revise its numbers. |
|
