Washington, DC
January 2, 2008
Source:
International Cotton Advisory
Committee
World cotton area is forecast at
34 million hectares in 2008/09, about the same as this season.
Still, world cotton production is forecast at 26.9 million tons
in 2008/09, up 5% from this season, due to an expected rise in
yields. Global cotton mill use is projected at 27.5 million tons
in 2008/09, only 1% higher than in 2007/08 but still exceeding
production. As a result, a further decline in world cotton
stocks is expected in 2008/09.
The Secretariat, using the ICAC Price Model 2007, forecasts a
season-average Cotlook A Index of
67 cents per pound in 2007/08, 8 cents higher than in 2006/07.
An expected significant decline in the stocks-to-mill use ratio
in the World-less-China (Mainland) is pushing prices higher in
2007/08.
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
|
. |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
|
. |
Million Tons |
Million Bales |
|
Production |
26.74 |
25.7 |
26.9 |
122.8 |
118 |
124 |
|
Consumption |
26.64 |
27.2 |
27.5 |
122.4 |
125 |
126 |
|
Exports |
8.12 |
8.9 |
8.7 |
37.3 |
41 |
40 |
|
Ending Stocks |
12.70 |
11.2 |
10.7 |
58.3 |
52 |
49 |
|
Stock adjustment |
-0.02 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
0 |
0 |
|
Cotlook A Index* |
59.15 |
67** |
. |
59.15 |
67** |
. |
|
* Season-average Cotlook A Index
(U.S. cents per pound).
** The price projection for 2007/08 is based on the ending
stocks/mill use ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in
2005/06, 2006/07 (estimates) and 2007/08 (projection), and on
the ending stocks/mill use ratio in China (Mainland) in 2005/06
and 2006/07 (estimates).
95% confidence interval based on current estimates of supply,
use and stocks: 61 to 72 cents per pound.
PDF version:
http://www.icac.org/cotton_info/publications/press/2008/pr_january_08.pdf
The International Cotton
Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of
cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the
Committee publishes information related to world cotton
production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical
information on cotton production technology |
|
