St, Louis, Missouri
February 15, 2008
A number of prominent biofuels
researchers have reacted strongly to the findings of two
questionable papers published last week by
Sciencexpress. The papers, authored by Timothy Searchinger
and Joseph Fargione, reach debatable conclusions regarding the
greenhouse gas emissions associated with potential land use
changes caused by increasing biofuels demand.
The National Corn Growers
Association (NCGA) believes the reactions from the
scientific community to these two papers demonstrates that
proper analysis of the causes and effects of land use change
defies the simplistic and assumption-laden approaches taken by
Searchinger and Fargione.
“There are no real, verifiable data in either of these papers on
the land use changes that actually occur as more corn is
processed to ethanol—hence these papers are not lifecycle
analysis studies,” wrote Dr. Bruce Dale, a Michigan State
University professor and expert in the field of biofuels
lifecycle analysis, in a response to the article. “They are in
fact highly speculative and uncertain scenarios for what might
happen as a result of increased demand for corn grain.”
Dr. Michael Wang, of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE)
Argonne National Laboratory, and Zia Haq, of DOE’s Energy
Efficiency and Renewable Energy, similarly responded that the
issue of land use change requires much more thorough analysis.
“While scientific assessment of land use change issues is
urgently needed in order to design policies that prevent
unintended consequences from biofuel production, conclusions
regarding the GHG emissions effects of biofuels based on
speculative, limited land use change modeling may misguide
biofuel policy development,” Wang and Haq wrote in a letter to
Science.
Wang and Haq challenge a number of the specific assumptions used
by Searchinger, including the assumption that corn ethanol
production levels will be double what is actually required under
the new Renewable Fuels Standard by 2015. Wang and Haq point out
that the authors “…examined a corn ethanol production case that
is not directly relevant to U.S. corn ethanol production in the
next seven years.”
Dr. Kenneth Cassman, professor of agronomy and horticulture at
the University of Nebraska, said a number of other critical
factors must be considered in any attempts to model the effect
of land use changes on the biofuels lifecycle.
“The ability to accurately predict the indirect impact of
biofuel expansion on land use change cannot be evaluated in
isolation from other major factors that influence land use
change, which makes it a complex and challenging task,” Cassman
said. “In fact, there has not been sufficient research linking
the agriculture and energy sectors, and the other factors
affecting land use, to allow accurate estimation of the indirect
effect of biofuels alone.”
Dr. David Morris, vice president of the Institute for Local
Self-Reliance and author of an analysis released today on
ethanol and land use changes, said “…the authors’ declarations
that ethanol increases greenhouse gas emissions, a conclusion
that has made headlines around the world, is not supported, and
may be contradicted, by their own data.”
According to NCGA President Ron Litterer, the reaction from the
scientific community to the findings of these papers
demonstrates the need for much more careful evaluation and
research of these issues.
“Stakeholders must demand that the best science is brought to
bear in this debate,” Litterer said. “It is obvious from the
lack of agreement on these issues that analyzing the impact of
increased biofuels production on domestic and international land
use change is a complex process and a relatively new area of
study for the scientific community. The scientific community
should be discouraged from rushing to judgment on these issues
simply to satisfy political timetables.”
The National Corn Growers Association’s mission is to create
and increase opportunities for corn growers. NCGA represents
more than 33,000 members and 48 affiliated state organizations
and hundreds of thousands of growers who contribute to state
checkoff programs.
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