Washington, DC
December 1, 2008
Source:
International Cotton Advisory
Committee
Global cotton imports are expected
to decrease by 12% to 7.3 million tons in 2008/09, resulting
from a projected 6% decline in global cotton mill use, to 24.9
million tons. Lower expected global economic growth in 2009,
projected declines in developed economies' income in 2009,
tightening credit availability for spinning mills, and
uncertainty regarding the consequences of the global financial
crisis, are severely affecting cotton consumption worldwide.
The projected decline in world cotton trade is driven by an
expected 24% drop in imports by China (Mainland) to 1.9 million
tons. Imports by the rest of the world are also expected to
decline by 7% to 5.4 million tons.
World cotton production is expected to decline by 6% in 2008/09,
to 24.6 million tons, driven by a decline in cotton area caused
by increased competition from grains and oilseeds and
unfavorable fluctuations in the exchange rates of many producing
countries during 2007/08. In particular, production is expected
to fall by 30% in the United States to 2.9 million tons.
Production is also projected down significantly in Turkey and
Brazil, but could increase in India, Pakistan and Australia.
The ICAC Price Model 2007 forecasts the 2008/09 season-average
Cotlook A Index at 69 cents per pound. However, the Secretariat
believes that the 2008/09 season-average Cotlook A Index may
actually be in the lower half of the 95% confidence interval,
between 62 and 69 cents per pound.
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
|
. |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
|
. |
Million Tons |
Million Bales |
|
Production |
26.64 |
26.23 |
24.6 |
122.3 |
120.5 |
113 |
|
Consumption |
26.49 |
26.37 |
24.9 |
121.6 |
121.1 |
114 |
|
Exports |
8.12 |
8.34 |
7.3 |
37.3 |
38.3 |
34 |
|
Ending Stocks |
12.52 |
12.25 |
11.9 |
57.5 |
56.3 |
55 |
|
Cotlook A Index* |
59.15 |
72.90 |
69** |
59.15 |
72.90 |
69** |
|
* Season-average Cotlook A Index
(U.S. cents per pound).
** The price projection for 2008/09 is based on the ending
stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in
2006/07, in 2007/08 (estimate), and in 2008/09 (projection), and
on the ending stocks/consumption ratio in China (Mainland) in
2006/07 and in 2007/08 (estimate). 95% confidence
interval: 62 to 77 cents per pound.
The International Cotton
Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of
cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the
Committee publishes information related to world cotton
production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical
information on cotton production technology |
|
