Australia
September 17, 2007
After one of the best starts to
the season in a number of years in most states, dry conditions
in the past two months have resulted in winter crop forecasts
being revised down, as revealed in
ABARE’s September
Australian Crop Report.
‘Winter grain production in 2007-08 is now forecast to total
25.6 million tonnes, compared with 37 million tonnes forecast in
June. This is 27 per cent below the five year average, but well
above last year’s severely drought affected crop,’ commented
Karen Schneider, ABARE’s Acting Executive Director, on releasing
the September issue of the Australian Crop Report.
Most cropping regions of Australia recorded below to very much
below average winter rainfall. August was a particularly dry
month, with above average daytime temperatures in most states
and strong winds, which placed crops in a vulnerable position
heading into spring.
‘September rainfall to date has also been below average in most
states, with the exception of central Queensland and parts of
southern Western Australia. The dry conditions have resulted in
a downward revision of forecast winter crop production as the
yield potential of most crops has declined rapidly over the past
month,’ Ms Schneider explained.
The biggest decline in yield potential has occurred in New South
Wales and South Australia, reflecting below to very much below
average winter rainfall and virtually no September rainfall to
date.
‘Of the major winter grains, wheat production is forecast to be
around 15.5 million tonnes in 2007-08, around 28 per cent below
the five year average but well above the 9.8 million tonnes
harvested last year,’ Ms Schneider said.
Barley production in 2007-08 is forecast to reach around 5.9
million tonnes. Although this is a significant increase in
production from 2006-07, it is well below the five year average.
These forecasts are dependent on receiving spring rainfall to
stabilise yields at current estimates.
Total summer crop area is forecast to increase by 36 per cent to
just over 1 million hectares in 2007-08. However, this is still
30 per cent below the five year average.
‘Despite some rainfall in parts of northern New South Wales and
southern Queensland recharging soil moisture profiles, water
storages still remain critically low,’ Ms Schneider concluded.
For copies of the September issue of the Australian Crop Report,
visit the ABARE website
www.abareconomics.com or phone Publications on 02 6272 2010. |
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