Washington, DC
September 4, 2007
Source:
International Cotton Advisory
Committee
Production in Asia is expected to
continue to increase in 2007/08 to a record of 14.9 million
tons, which would represent 59% of world production.
Projected area and yield increases in India and Pakistan explain
most of the forecast production increase in Asia. Production in
the rest of the world is expected to decline for the third
consecutive season to 10.5 million tons. As a result, world
cotton production is forecast slightly down at 25.4 million tons
in 2007/08.
Asian cotton mill use is also expected to continue to increase
in 2007/08 to a record of 20.3 million tons, which would
represent 75% of world cotton mill use. Most of the projected 3%
increase in global mill use will be once again driven by China
(Mainland).
World cotton trade is expected to rebound by 8% to 8.9 million
tons in 2007/08 due to larger Chinese imports, forecast at 3.4
million tons. Exports by the United States, India and Brazil are
projected to increase in 2007/08.
However, exports by Uzbekistan, the African Franc Zone and
Australia are expected to decline.
The Secretariat, using the ICAC Price Model 2007, forecasts a
season-average Cotlook A Index of 68 cents per pound in 2007/08,
9 cents higher than in 2006/07. This projected price increase is
the result of an expected significant decrease in the
stocks-to-mill use ratio in the World-less-China (Mainland) in
2007/08.
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
|
. |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
|
. |
Million Tons |
Million Bales |
|
Production |
25.01 |
26.0 |
25.4 |
114.9 |
119 |
117 |
|
Consumption |
24.95 |
26.3 |
27.0 |
114.6 |
121 |
124 |
|
Exports |
9.86 |
8.2 |
8.9 |
45.3 |
38 |
41 |
|
Ending Stocks |
12.79 |
12.5 |
10.9 |
58.7 |
57 |
50 |
|
Stock adjustment |
0.15 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.7 |
0 |
0 |
|
Cotlook A Index* |
56.15 |
59.15 |
68** |
56.15 |
59.15 |
68** |
|
* Season-average Cotlook A
Index (U.S. cents per pound).
** The price projection for 2007/08 is based on the ending
stocks/mill use ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in
2006/07 (estimate) and 2007/08 (projection), and on the ending
stocks/mill use ratio in China (Mainland) in
2006/07 (estimate).
95% confidence interval based on current estimates of supply,
use and stocks:
59 to 77 cents per pound.
PDF version:
http://www.icac.org/cotton_info/publications/press/2007/pr_september_07.pdf
The International Cotton
Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of
cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the
Committee publishes information related to world cotton
production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical
information on cotton production technology |
|
