"Opportunities
to price more of the 2007 corn crop may develop over the
next few weeks, said a University of
Illinois Extension marketing specialist.
"December 2007 futures above $3.90, however, might
require some new fundamental information," said Darrel Good.
"On the supply side, the new USDA production forecast to be
released on Nov. 9 will be important."
Good's comments came as he reviewed corn prices. Cash corn
prices in some markets are at the highest level for the
marketing year that began on Sept. 1. The recent strength
reflects higher futures prices and a stronger basis.
The average cash corn price in central Illinois briefly
dipped below $3 in mid-September and was just above $3 on
Oct. 8. That average, however, was at $3.47 on Oct. 26.
Since reaching a low of about $3.35 in early October,
December 2007 corn futures settled at $3.72 on Oct. 26.
"The average basis in central Illinois was extremely weak in
the pre-harvest and early harvest period, with cash bids on
Sept. 20 averaging about 50 cents under December futures,"
said Good. "The weak basis pattern was widespread throughout
the Midwest. On Oct. 26, the average central Illinois cash
bid was 25 cents under December futures, very close to a
'normal' level.
"Higher futures prices and a stronger basis have developed
despite an extremely large crop, the need for corn to be
stored in temporary facilities, and high transportation
costs. The strength reflects a continuation of strong export
demand, higher energy costs, concerns about U.S. acreage in
2008, and a slowdown in the rate of farmer selling of the
newly harvested crop."
Additionally, he noted, storage shortages may not have been
as severe as generally expected.
"In Illinois, for example, the fall supply of crops--Sept. 1
stocks plus 2007 production--totaled about three billion
bushels," said Good. "If storage capacity in 2007 was added
at the same rate as in 2006, total capacity was about 350
million bushels less than the fall crop supply. That
compares to a storage deficit of about 380 million bushels
in 2004.
"Nationally, storage capacity was surplus by about 400
million bushels, assuming storage capacity was added in 2007
as the same rate in 2006."