Washington, DC
October 8, 2007
Source:
International Cotton Advisory
Committee
World cotton trade is expected to
rebound by 9% to 8.9 million tons in
2007/08 due to larger forecast Chinese imports. U.S. exports are
expected to increase to 3.7 million tons. Indian cotton exports
are expected to continue to expand in 2007/08 to over one
million tons, making India the second largest cotton exporting
country.
World cotton production is expected to decline slightly in
2007/08 to 25.5 million tons. Despite the small gain in prices
in 2006/07, cotton area is estimated slightly down to 33.5
million hectares in 2007/08, but the world yield is expected to
reach a record of 762 kilograms per hectare.
World cotton consumption is forecast to increase to 27.2 million
tons in 2007/08. Sustained global economic growth will continue
to lift the world textile industry but projected increases in
cotton prices are expected to slow the growth in world cotton
mill use to 3%, down from 6% in 2006/07.
China (Mainland)'s textile industry will continue to drive world
cotton mill use in 2007/08.
The Secretariat, using the ICAC Price Model 2007, forecasts a
season-average Cotlook A Index of 71 cents per pound in 2007/08,
12 cents higher than in 2006/07. This projected price increase
is the result of an expected significant decrease in the
stocks-to-mill use ratio in the World-less-China
(Mainland) in 2007/08.
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
|
. |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
|
. |
Million Tons |
Million Bales |
|
Production |
25.01 |
26.0 |
25.5 |
114.9 |
119 |
117 |
|
Consumption |
24.92 |
26.3 |
27.2 |
114.4 |
121 |
125 |
|
Exports |
9.86 |
8.2 |
8.9 |
45.3 |
38 |
41 |
|
Ending Stocks |
12.77 |
12.5 |
10.8 |
58.7 |
57 |
49 |
|
Stock adjustment |
0.15 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.7 |
0 |
0 |
|
Cotlook A Index* |
56.15 |
59.15 |
71** |
56.15 |
59.15 |
71** |
|
* Season-average Cotlook A Index
(U.S. cents per pound).
** The price projection for 2007/08 is based on the ending
stocks/mill use ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in
2006/07 (estimate) and 2007/08 (projection), and on the ending
stocks/mill use ratio in China (Mainland) in
2006/07 (estimate).
95% confidence interval based on current estimates of supply,
use and stocks:
62 to 80 cents per pound.
PDF version:
http://www.icac.org/cotton_info/publications/press/2007/pr_october_07.pdf
The International Cotton
Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of
cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the
Committee publishes information related to world cotton
production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical
information on cotton production technology |
|
