Australia
October 8, 2007
Source:
Australian Oilseeds
Federation
Canola 2007/08
The canola crop has fared better than expected although
little crop will be harvested in NSW. Overall estimates have
been reduced by around 20% on last month.
 There
has been little good news in New South Wales, with the
last reasonable rainfall occurring in the third week of August
and then only in the North East. The Northern region has fared
best, but there was little canola planted in this region. In the
Central West it is estimated that a further 45% of the crop has
been lost (cut for hay/silage or failed) and in the south, it is
estimated that 70% of the crop has been lost. Given the start to
the season and the excellent potential the crops had combined
with the good prices for hay/silage, many growers have opted to
cut their crops. Crops that are carried through to grain will
have low yields and there is uncertainty over the oil content.
In the south, cool nights have helped hold the crops, but any
increases in temperature will see crops deteriorate quickly. It
is estimated that 57,000 hectares will be harvested for 40,000
tonnes but there could be further downside.
The situation is still looking relatively positive for
Victoria. While crops in the Mallee have been lost and there
has been a considerable downgrade for the North Central/North
East with further downside possible, other regions are holding.
In the Wimmera, there has been some canola cut for hay, but the
southern and western Wimmera received between 15 and 20mm of
rain last week and crops are in reasonable condition. The
Western District is looking good, following another good
rainfall last week. This will carry the crops through to
harvest. Thus, it is estimated that 270,000 hectares will be
harvested for 348,000 tonnes. This is higher than some trade
estimates, but as noted in earlier crop updates, reflects the
dominance of the Western District in area planted estimates.
Crops are variable across South
Australia, reflecting the variable rainfall patterns during
September. Parts of the
West Coast have experienced one of the worst months for rainfall
while the South East has received good rain. The lower Eyre
Peninsula is struggling with little subsoil moisture, as is the
Mallee. The mid North received between 13-19 mm of rain last
week and this will see the crops hang on. The South East
received 25-35mm and crops are looking good. There have been few
crops cut for hay. There has been some incidence of Diamond Back
Moth impacting crops. Overall, yields have been revised down
slightly.
Estimates have been left unchanged
for Western Australia. Harvest has started in Geraldton
and while crops are poor, there was little canola planted. The
western part of the Kwinana zone is looking quite good, although
crops are variable. Crops are in late flowering stage to being
1-2 weeks off harvest. The eastern side of the zone has not
fared as well and yields will not be as good. The Albany zone
has experienced very good conditions, with just below average
rainfall in September and good subsoil moisture. Crops have
finished flowering. Harvest has also started in Esperance. There
are some poor crops, but generally the region is looking good.
There is not expected to be much chance of downside on the
estimates and, in fact, some trade numbers have the crop at
levels above this.
Virtual canola site -
http://www.australianoilseeds.com/agronomy_centre/the_virtual_canola_site
|
|
