Rome, Italy
May 16, 2007
World cereal production in 2007 is
on track to reach a record level of 2 095 million tonnes, a rise
of 4.8 percent over 2006 levels,
FAO said in a tentative forecast issued today. But with
stocks at their lowest level in over two decades, total supplies
would still be barely adequate to meet increased demand, boosted
by the fast-growing biofuels industry.
International prices for most cereals have risen significantly
in 2006/07 so far and are likely to remain high in 2007/08,
according to FAO’s latest
Crop
Prospects and Food Situation report. As a result, the cereal
import bill of the low-income food deficit countries (LIFDCs) is
forecast to increase by about one-quarter in the current season.
Ethanol production boosts maize use
The early forecast for coarse grains production in 2007 has been
revised upward to around 1 051 million tonnes, 7.1 percent up
from last year and a record high, according to the report. The
bulk of the increase is expected in maize, which accounts for
about 70 percent of the total.
Fast growth in demand for maize-based ethanol production is
expected to boost total industrial use of coarse grains in
2007/08 by 9 percent, the report said.
Expectations for the world wheat harvest are down slightly since
FAO’s April forecast, but at just below 621 million tonnes,
production is still expected to be 4 percent above the previous
year’s level.
FAO’s early and very tentative forecast for world rice
production in 2007 points to a slightly larger crop at some 422
million tonnes, which would match the 2005 record.
Low-income food-deficit countries
For the LIFDCs as a group, the report predicts 2007 cereal
output to be similar to last year’s good level. However,
excluding China and India, the largest producers, the aggregate
crop of the remaining countries is forecast to decline slightly.
In North Africa, a sharp decline is expected in 2007 cereal
production, reflecting dry conditions in Morocco that are
anticipated to halve the country’s wheat production this year.
In Southern Africa, a reduced cereal harvest is being gathered
for the second year in succession. In drought-affected Zimbabwe,
a huge rise in the price of the basic staple maize is
anticipated. By contrast, in Malawi, an ample exportable surplus
is available following a bumper harvest.
Hunger hotspots
Despite improved food supply in many of the countries normally
most at risk from food insecurity, following record or bumper
2006 cereal crops, food difficulties persist in 33 countries
worldwide.
Emergency assistance is required for large numbers of vulnerable
farmers in Bolivia affected by serious crop and livestock losses
following drought and floods during the 2007 main cropping
season.
In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, despite steady
recovery in agricultural production over the past few years and
a recent pledge of 400 000 tonnes of food aid by the Republic of
Korea, the food supply situation for millions of people remains
a serious concern, the report said.
The recent flare up of conflict in southern Somalia has
displaced hundreds of thousands of people and is likely to
reduce the area planted, particularly in areas surrounding the
capital, Mogadishu, during the 2007 main “gu” cropping season
currently under way.
In Zimbabwe, the report anticipates food shortages for millions
of vulnerable people struggling under the deepening economic
crisis and sky rocketing inflation, currently considered to be
the highest in the world.
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