Brussels, Belgium
July 24, 2007The
European Commission's in-house scientific service, the Joint
Research Centre (JRC), has just released its annual crop yield
forecast for Europe. The central prediction is that the 2007
total cereal harvest will be 276 M tonnes or 1,6% below the
average of the last five years with Central and Eastern Europe
losing out the most.
Across the EU, the growing
season trend has been exceptional with mild winter and hot
spring temperatures boosting crop growth. Northern regions have
been particularly hit with intensive rain while heat waves and
drought spells have had a detrimental effect in Eastern
countries, especially around the Black Sea region.
In Romania, for example, the
predictions are that wheat yield will be 20.1% below average,
while in Bulgaria barley yield will be down 14.6% and for maize
the decrease could be as much as 40%. In Hungary, maize yield
will be 6.7% lower, soft wheat yields will be 7.1% lower in the
Czech and down 8.9% in the Slovak Republic.
Looking at individual crops
across the EU-27 over the past five years, the latest 2007 yield
forecasts are:
- soft wheat: (±0%)
- durum wheat (+13.5)
- barley (+3.4%)
- grain maize (-0.8%)
- rape seed (-5.1%)
- sunflower (-3.4%)
- potato (+8.1%)
- sugar beet (+4.2%)
The total EU-27 land cover used
for cereal production in 2007 is estimated to have decreased by
2.3%. Whereas 276 M tonnes (5 M tonnes (-1.6%) less than the
five year average) will be produced, this still represents
approximately 10 M tonnes more production than 2006 figures.
Unseasonably high temperatures
of 2-4°C above the seasonal average across the growing season
certainly had an impact in Central and Eastern Europe and the
Balkan region. France, Germany and the Benelux also enjoyed a
very mild spring. Spain and Portugal received good spring
rainfall which spread to Central and Western European countries
from May onwards.
At the end of June and during
the middle of July, South-Eastern Mediterranean areas like Italy
and the Balkans experienced heat waves and unseasonably dry
conditions. An extreme heat wave is still under way in Hungary,
Bulgaria and Romania where both winter and summer crop yields
are being affected.
During the same period,
unseasonably high rainfall in North Atlantic and North Sea areas
has reduced crop yield potentials. Since the beginning of June,
for example, more than 150 mm of rain has fallen over the UK,
Northern France, Northern Germany, Benelux, Denmark, Norway and
Northern Poland and has partly spoiled first harvests. Peaks of
260 mm in Norway and even 445 mm in Northern England were
recorded.
Looking at extreme falls in
average cereal production over the past five years, Bulgaria,
Hungary, Romania and the Slovak and Czech Republics have been
particularly badly hit:
Romania (-20.1% for
wheat yield compared to average, -19.9% for barley, -17.7% for
maize, -16.9% for sunflower, -50% for rape seed), Bulgaria
(-14.6% for barley yield compared to average, -12.4% for
soft wheat, -40.4% for maize, -20% for sunflower), Hungary
(-6.7% for maize yield compared to average, -7.9% for potato,
-5.9% for barley), Slovak Rep (-8.9% for soft wheat
compared to average, -2% for winter barley, -15.6% for rape
seed) and Czech Rep (-7.1% for soft wheat yield compared
to average, -7.7% for barley).
Detailed forecasts by crop and
country are published in
MEMO/07/301
Further information:
http://agrifish.jrc.it/marsstat/ |
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