The latest yield forecast has confirmed that Queensland and northern New South Wales grain sorghum yields are likely to be much below average.

Central Queensland is the bright spot, with yields there likely to be average or better.

Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries scientist Andries Potgieter said computer modelling predicted a median grain sorghum yield of almost 1.9 tonnes per hectare in the northern grain belt this season, well below the long-term median of 2.3t/ha.

Mr Potgieter said most areas in Central Queensland had yield expectations at or above the long-term median.

“The yields quoted are averages, so there is yield variation in the various regions that comprise the northern cropping area,” he said.

Mr Potgieter said the yield predictions were developed by a computer model based on the integration of a simple agro-climatic stress index model, actual climate data up to the forecasting date (February 1), and projected climate data after that date.

“The yield information is used by governments, organisations and businesses needing reliable crop production estimates,” Mr Potgieter said.

“The forecasts are updated by the tenth of each month and are available from the DPI&F (telephone 13 25 23),” he said.