Australia
November 12, 2007
Source:
Australian Oilseeds
Federation
Canola 2007/08
 The canola crop has been boosted by better than expected
yields in Western Australia. This will see over one million
tonnes produced Australiawide.
Harvest is completed in NSW. Yields have been very variable
ranging from less than 0.5t/ha to around 2 t/ha. Yields were
not only impacted by drought, but also by late frosts in some
areas. Yield of irrigated crops was also impacted by lack of
water. Oil contents have also been adversely impacted by the
dry conditions. Overall, estimates have improved slightly on
last month.
The difficulty around accurately assessing the Victorian crop
continues with significant variability in yields being
experienced, reflecting the fact that some crops received rain
in October and others did not. There has been a small area
harvested in the Mallee and the North East/Central area
harvested has been revised down further. The Wimmera has
varied from crops cut for hay to crops yielding over 2 t/ha.
For the crops harvested in the Wimmera, it is estimated that
these will average 1.2 t/ha. The Western District will
contribute the vast majority of the Victorian crop, with
conditions very good. Despite earlier concerns, there appears
to be little frost damage. Harvest is just commencing in this
region and to date yields have varied significantly. It is
expected that yields will favour the higher end of this range as
harvest continues, but some uncertainty remains. Oil
contents are also expected to be very good. While the
production estimate has been left unchanged, the trade are
calling the crop lower with estimates ranging from <200,000
tonnes up to 225,000 tonnes.
There has been little change to the estimates for South
Australia. While the lower rainfall areas have seen lower
yields, this has been partly compensated for by better yields in
the higher rainfall areas. The South East, in particular,
benefited from the good rain in late October. Oil contents are
also expected to be good, ranging from 38% to over 42%.
Estimates have been reduced slightly.
After a very poor start to the season in terms of rainfall, the
Western Australia canola crop has shown its resilience and
has rebounded with above average yields in many areas and a
significant overall improvement in general conditions. While
the Geraldton zone has remained very much below average,
the other three Port Zones, where 90% of the States canola is
produced, have improved dramatically on the back of average
rainfall during the growing season. Late rains in October have
seen bigger grains than expected with higher oil percentage
including oil results between 43 and 44% on average in the
southern port zones. Throughout the southern areas, yields
have been 200 to 500 kg/ha better than expected. A mild
finish to the season, combined with excellent harvesting
conditions is expected to result in production around
600,000mt. Harvest is well advanced and expected to be
completed in the next couple of weeks.
Sunflowers 2007/08
 Prospects for sunflower crop have improved with the recent
rainfall across the north, although production is still
substantially below the five year average and domestic
requirements.
The early sunflower plant was limited due to dry conditions
and strong competition from sorghum. In northern NSW,
there has been a small area planted. The recent rain has
boosted these crops. There is also a small early plant on the
Liverpool Plains. Crops are mostly monounsaturated type,
with small areas of poly and confectionary types. There are a
few early crops on the Downs.
In the Moree district, crops are at mid flower to early grain
fill and are varied in their condition. This is strongly
dependent on the storm rains that have been about the district
in the last month. The distribution of rainfall has been
extremely isolated so crops range from excellent condition to
moisture stressed. Temperatures for the most part have been
mild, however, the last few days have brought mid 30’s with
strong winds which can have a significant impact on grain weight
and oil yield if occurring at early grain fill. Rutherglen bugs
have been present in large amounts, with most crops having had
one insecticide spray at budding and some having already had
a second spray depending on crop stage and insect pressure. The
early plant on the Liverpool Plains commenced in mid September
and stretched out until the end of October. Some patchy
establishments resulted. The weeks following sowing were quite
windy and drying. However, the early plant has benefited from
storm rain over the last month to six weeks. The majority of the
early plant is now budding with quite a few crops approaching
flowering in the next two weeks.
Rutherglen bug pressure has been extremely high with some crops
having been sprayed up to three times already. Prospects for the
late plant have improved with recent rain in the north and
continued strong prices for sunflowers. Grower enquiry has
increased. On the Downs, there is some concern about the
potential for white fly and this may support sunflowers over
soybeans. Central Queensland will be the major region for late
crop plant. The late plant on the Liverpool Plains will be a mix
of planned plantings (into fallows) and opportunity double
cropping. A number of growers have received very high rainfalls
and this has provided an opportunity for planting back into
recently harvested winter cereal stubble. The total area to be
planted will depend somewhat on the rain received in the next
week.
Soybeans 2007/08
 Soybean
planting is just getting underway and weather conditions and
prices of competing products over the next
month will determine the final area planted. At this stage, it
is estimated that area planted will be just over 15,000
hectares, a slight improvement on last season, but still well
below the five year average.
Only a small proportion of the intended area is planted across
Queensland. Improved conditions will see larger areas planted in
some regions compared to the drought impacted 2006/07 crop,
although overall the state remains similar to last year. In
southern Queensland, rain has been patchy and planting will
depend on further rainfall. There has been good grower interest
reported. On the Western Downs, there are concerns about white
fly and this may limit planting. The North Coast of NSW is again
expected to be the major production region. Area is expected to
be similar or better than last year, although little is
currently planted due to the wet conditions which have disrupted
planting and the delayed cane harvest. Planting is expected to
continue into late
January. There has been some competition for soybean area from
corn on the back of strong corn prices. The crops that have been
planted have emerged and are in good condition.
The rest of NSW is still waiting for further rain. There have
been some good falls, but it has been patchy and, in the north,
soil moisture profiles are variable. In the central and south
regions, there is little or no irrigation water. Like
Queensland, most of NSW is still intended area to be planted,
with little in the ground. In the north, prices of sunflowers
and sorghum are offering competition to soybeans. In the central
region, the Macquarie and Lachlan Valleys will require good rain
to see area planted. There is a very small area planted in the
Riverina and nothing planted in Victoria.
|
|
