Australia
December 6, 2007
Australian commodity export
earnings are forecast to increase by 1 per cent to more than
$140 billion in 2007-08, according to the December issue of
ABARE’s Australian
Commodities. This increase is smaller than the 4 per cent rise
forecast in ABARE’s September issue, and reflects the effects of
drought and the strong Australian dollar.
‘Farm export earnings are forecast to decline by more than 3 per
cent to $26.8 billion in 2007-08, because of poor seasonal
conditions in many parts of Australia,’ said Phillip Glyde,
Executive Director, ABARE, on releasing the report today.
The decline in farm export earnings is due mainly to a drought
reduced winter grains crop. Export earnings from grains are
forecast to decline by 14 per cent, mainly because of
substantially reduced carry-in stocks from the previous year
meaning volumes shipped will be well down.
‘While much of the commodity focus has recently been on the lack
of rain and its effect on both irrigated and nonirrigated
agriculture, mineral resources will continue to be far and away
the mainstay of Australia’s commodity export performance,’ Mr
Glyde noted.
The value of Australia’s minerals and energy exports is forecast
to be around $110 billion in 2007-08, an increase of 2 per cent
from $108 billion in 2006-07. The forecast increase is slightly
less than ABARE’s September forecast because of the negative
effect on earnings of the stronger Australian dollar and some
weakening in metals prices.
‘We are now starting to see the benefits of recent high levels
of investment in the Australian mining industry, with the volume
of mineral resources production and exports increasing,’ Mr
Glyde said.
Earnings from energy exports are forecast to increase by 7 per
cent to $42 billion, supported by an increase in the value of
thermal coal, LNG, uranium, crude oil and related petroleum
products exports.
The metals and other minerals industries are forecast to
contribute nearly $68 billion – a decline of more than 1 per
cent – to Australian exports in 2007-08.
‘The fall reflects the effects of lower forecast prices for a
number of metals and an assumed higher Australian dollar,’ Mr
Glyde said.
The December issue of Australian Commodities also features
articles on:
- the impacts of climate
change on Australian agriculture
- India’s economic prospects and implications for Australian
commodity exports
- farm management deposits
- minerals and energy major developments projects - October
2007.
For free downloads of the December
issue of Australian Commodities, visit the ABARE website
www.abareconomics.com
or phone Publications on 02 6272 2010. |
|
