Washington, DC
December 3, 2007
Source:
International Cotton Advisory
Committee
Global cotton mill use is expected
to increase by 3% in 2007/08 to 27.4 million tons. This rate of
growth would be smaller than in the previous three seasons but
would remain higher than the long-term average of 2%. The main
reasons for this projected slow-down in consumption growth
include a decline in the rate of global economic growth, an
increase in international cotton prices, and the fact that
cotton has lost some of its price competitiveness vis-à-vis
polyester in major markets since August 2007.
World cotton production is estimated down by 3% to 26.0 million
tons in 2007/08 due to a decline in area. Production is forecast
down in China (Mainland), in the United States, in Pakistan, in
Turkey and in the CFA zone. India is the only major producing
country where production is expected to increase this season, to
a record of 5.3 million tons. As global cotton mill use is
forecast to exceed global production in 2007/08, stocks are
expected to decline by 10% to 11.8 million tons by July 2008.
World cotton imports are forecast up by 9% in 2007/08 to 9.0
million tons, due to a projected rebound in Chinese imports.
The Secretariat, using the ICAC Price Model 2007, forecasts a
season-average Cotlook A Index of 67 cents per pound in 2007/08,
8 cents higher than in 2006/07. This projected price increase is
the result of an expected significant decline in the
stocks-to-mill use ratio in the World-less-China (Mainland) in
2007/08.
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
|
. |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2008/09 |
|
. |
Million Tons |
Million Bales |
|
Production |
26.74 |
26.0 |
26.6 |
122.8 |
120 |
122 |
|
Consumption |
26.59 |
27.4 |
27.7 |
122.1 |
126 |
127 |
|
Exports |
8.12 |
9.0 |
8.8 |
37.3 |
41 |
41 |
|
Ending Stocks |
13.11 |
11.8 |
10.7 |
60.2 |
54 |
49 |
|
Stock adjustment |
-0.04 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.2 |
0 |
0 |
|
Cotlook A Index* |
59.15 |
67** |
. |
59.15 |
67** |
. |
|
* * Season-average Cotlook A Index
(U.S. cents per pound).
** The price projection for 2007/08 is based on the ending
stocks/mill use ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in
2005/06, 2006/07 (estimates) and 2007/08 (projection), and on
the ending stocks/mill use ratio in China (Mainland) in 2005/06
and 2006/07 (estimates).
95% confidence interval based on current estimates of supply,
use and stocks: 60 to 73 cents per pound.
PDF version:
http://www.icac.org/cotton_info/publications/press/2007/pr_december_07.pdf
The International Cotton
Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of
cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the
Committee publishes information related to world cotton
production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical
information on cotton production technology |
|
