Washington, DC
August 1, 2007
Source:
International Cotton Advisory
Committee
The new model developed by the
Secretariat forecasts a season-average Cotlook A Index of 71
cents per pound in 2007/08. This projected price increase from
the 2006/07 season-average of 59 cents per pound is the result
of an expected significant decrease in the ratio of stocks to
mill use in the world-less-China (Mainland) in 2007/08.
World cotton production is forecast down slightly to 25.1
million tons in 2007/08, whereas consumption is expected to
continue to increase by 2% to
26.9 million tons. Therefore, world ending stocks are forecast
down by 14% to
10.4 million tons in 2007/08. World cotton trade is expected to
rebound to 9.0 million tons, driven by larger Chinese imports.
Exports by the United States, Uzbekistan and Brazil are expected
to increase, exports by India to remain stable, but exports by
the CFA zone and Australia are forecast significantly down.
An expected fall in U.S. production in 2007/08 could more than
offset projected increases in India, Pakistan and China
(Mainland). India's production is forecast at 5.0 million tons
in 2007/08; this would make it the second largest producer. Asia
is expected to account for 58% of world cotton production and
75% of world cotton mill use in 2007/08.
WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION
|
. |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
|
. |
Million Tons |
Million Bales |
|
Production |
24.97 |
25.7 |
25.1 |
114.7 |
118 |
115 |
|
Consumption |
24.91 |
26.2 |
26.9 |
114.4 |
120 |
123 |
|
Exports |
9.76 |
8.2 |
9.0 |
44.8 |
38 |
41 |
|
Ending Stocks |
12.70 |
12.1 |
10.4 |
58.3 |
56 |
48 |
|
Stock adjustment |
0.04 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0 |
0 |
|
Cotlook A Index* |
56.15 |
59 |
71** |
56.15 |
59 |
71** |
|
* Season-average Cotlook A
Index (U.S. cents per pound).
** The price projection for 2007/08 is based on the ending
stocks/mill use ratio in the world-less-China (Mainland) in
2006/07 (estimate) and 2007/08 (projection), and on the ending
stocks/mill use ratio in China (Mainland) in 2006/07 (estimate).
95% confidence interval based on current estimates of supply,
use and stocks: 61 to 82 cents per pound.
PDF version:
http://www.icac.org/cotton_info/publications/press/2007/pr_august_07.pdf
The International Cotton
Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of
cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the
Committee publishes information related to world cotton
production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical
information on cotton production technology |
|
