Rome, Italy
April 3, 2007
Despite improved world cereal
supply, 33 countries are in crisis
World cereal production in 2007 is forecast to increase 4.3
percent to a record 2 082 million tonnes, according to the April
issue of FAO’s
Crop
Prospects and Food Situation report.
The bulk of the increase is expected in maize, with a bumper
crop already being gathered in South America, and a sharp
increase in plantings expected in the United States, according
to the report. A significant rise in wheat output is also
foreseen, with a recovery in some major exporting countries
after weather problems last year.
FAO forecasts coarse grains production to rise 5.6 percent to 1
033 million tonnes, and wheat to increase 4.8 percent to about
626 million tonnes. Global rice production in 2007 could rise
marginally to 423 million tonnes in milled terms, about 3
million tonnes more than in 2006, FAO says.
Low-income food-deficit countries
Although still highly tentative, FAO's first forecast indicates
that for the group of 82 low-income food-deficit countries, 2007
cereal production could remain around the above-average level of
2006. Following improved 2006 harvests in most of these
countries, cereal imports in the 2006/07 marketing year are
expected to decline in most regions.
Africa
In southern Africa, the 2007 main season harvest is under way.
Preliminary forecasts put total maize production at 14.8 million
tonnes, about the same as last year’s below-average crop.
Prospects vary considerably from country to country, however,
with significant crop losses due to floods in some parts of the
region, and reduced yields due to long dry weather spells in
others.
Maize prices have escalated in South Africa, the region’s main
exporting country, where inadequate precipitation will reduce
yields. This will affect Swaziland, Lesotho and other dependent
markets in the region. Meanwhile, food prices have also risen
steeply in Madagascar, due to crop damage from excess rainfall.
In eastern Africa, the outcome of the 2006/07 secondary season
crops, just completed in most countries, has been generally
good, the report says. Following above-average to bumper first
season crops in many countries, record cereal output is
confirmed for 2006/07, improving the overall food supply
situation.
Millions of people in the region still depend on food
assistance, however, due to a combination of factors including
conflict and adverse weather conditions. Moreover, Rift Valley
Fever, which broke out in Kenya in late December 2006, has since
emerged in southern Somalia and northern Tanzania, killing
hundreds of people and much livestock. This is a further blow to
the region’s pastoralists, whose herds had been greatly reduced
by a severe multi-year drought.
Latin America and the Caribbean
Record 2007 main season maize crops are being gathered in South
America, where planted area increased in response to strong
demand, largely for ethanol production in the United States.
Yields also benefited from favourable weather. A good wheat crop
is being harvested in Mexico, the main producing country in
Central America and the Caribbean.
In Bolivia, contrary to the favourable regional harvest and food
outlook, severe weather, ranging from torrential rains in some
parts to drought in others, has caused extensive losses to
agriculture, livestock, and other assets, threatening the food
security of rural communities.
Food crises continue
Despite improved food supplies in many food insecure countries,
33 countries worldwide are in a critical situation, mostly due
to conflict and adverse weather, FAO says. |
|
