Australian Oilseeds Federation - Crop Report September 2006 (excerpts)

Canola 2006/07

The canola crop estimates have been revised down by over 25% and the crop still hangs in the balance needing more rain.

In New South Wales, there was some rain in the north last week and 15-20mm in places of south west slopes and Murray River. Aphids are emerging as a problem in the north. The Central west continued to have no subsoil moisture and some crops are likely to be grazed or cut for hay. Drought conditions continue to prevail in the south. Some crops are in full flower, but there is little bulk of plants. Farmers have tended to hold back on fertiliser application given the late break and low rainfall and this may affect oil contents. Aphids and Diamond Back Moth are present in crops. The figures for NSW have been revised down for both area and yield, and if there is little or no rain in the next week or 10 days, production estimates are likely to be reduced significantly.

Victoria received life saving rain over the past week or so. More rain over the next month is needed to secure the quoted yields, but most of the Victorian crop is now likely to be harvested. The western districts will again be the key region for production and currently the crops look good. However, there is little subsoil moisture and the crops will need further rain to reach their potential. At this stage, area has been left unchanged and yields revised down a little.

Estimates for South Australia have been revised down significantly, with the state having missed the recent rain
event. The areas that were looking good such as the mid north and parts of Eyre Peninsula have come back and the areas like the South East that missed the early rain are in poor condition. Along with the dry conditions, there have been very warm temperatures. There could be some further downside for the state.

Warm weather has affected crops in Western Australia, but growth in healthy crops across the state, particularly in the upper Great Southern, has picked up with recent rainfall. Aphids are reported to be in damaging numbers on canola crops from the Great Southern to the lower northern region closer to Perth. Estimates of 30% of flowering spikes are infested with aphid colonies on some crops and spraying has occurred. There remains concern about locusts building up, but no large numbers have been reported as yet. Budworm has been observed up North and some Diamond Back Moth has been reported down south. The biggest limiter to total grain production now is the crops that didn’t come up or were not put in because of the late start.

Watch the canola crop progress at the Virtual Canola Crop site: http://www.australianoilseeds.com/info/virtual_canola_crop

Sunflower 2006/07

Our first estimates for the sunflower crop will be in the October edition, although planting of the early crop is
underway. In the northern New South Wales region, the early crop is essentially planted, with growth stage ranging from just shooting to 2 leaves. 10-40mm of rain has been received in the last 10 days, which should result in good germination and establishment of crops. The area is back on last year due to lack of suitable fallow available, good prices for competitive crops such as sorghum and a poor finish to the last year’s crop which resulted in poor returns after an excellent start to the crop. In the Liverpool Plains planting is just about to start, with areas are well down on last season. Conditions are very dry and most potential growers need rain to start sowing. Similarly on the Downs, growers are waiting for rain.