World mill use is estimated at 25.0 million tons in 2005/06, up 1.5 million tons (6%) from 2004/05, and 230,000 tons above world production.
Consequently, world ending stocks are expected to remain essentially unchanged at an estimated 10.6 million tons on July 31st, 2006. This will still be 2 million tons above the level of world stocks at the end of 2003/04. World consumption is expected to increase by 3% in 2006/07 and reach
25.8 million tons, almost half a million tons above world production, forecast at 25.3 million tons. As a result, world cotton stocks are forecast down in 2006/07, to an estimated 10.2 million tons on July 31st, 2007.

World cotton trade is forecast at a record 9.4 million tons this season and next, a 25% increase from 2004/05. This significant increase in world trade is driven mainly by record imports by China (Mainland). 2005/06 Chinese imports are estimated at 4.1 million tons, or three times 2004/05 imports.
The gap between production and use in China (Mainland) is forecast to remain as high in 2006/07 as in 2005/06. As a result, imports by China (Mainland) in
2006/07 are forecast at about the same record level as this season. Chinese imports are expected to account for about 45% of world imports in 2005/06 and 2006/07, compared to 19% in 2004/05.

Plantings are now taking place in the northern hemisphere, which accounts for 90% of world production. Cotton area is projected up 500,000 hectares to 31.5 million hectares in 2006/07, or 1.8 million hectares above the 10-year average. Production in China (Mainland), India and Pakistan in 2006/07 is forecast up to 6.2 million ton (+7%), 4.3 million tons (+6%) and 2.3 million tons (+7%), respectively. However, production in the United States is expected to decline to 4.8 million tons, down 8%.
 

WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION

. 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 . Million Tons Million Bales Production 26.29 24.8 25.3 120.8 114 116 Consumption 23.52 25.0 25.8 108.0 115 118 Exports 7.80 9.4 9.4 35.8 43 43 Ending Stocks 10.80 10.6 10.2 49.7 49 47 Cotlook A Index 52.2 56* 67* 52.2 56* 67*

* US cents per pound; the statistical estimates for 2006/07 are based on current estimates of supply and use; 95% confidence intervals extend 12 cents per pound above and below the estimate.

PDF version: http://www.icac.org/cotton_info/publications/press/2006/pr_may_06.pdf      

The International Cotton Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the Committee publishes information related to world  cotton production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical information on cotton production technology. Detailed statistics are found bimonthly in COTTON: Review of the World Situation, $160 per year. A monthly outlook by fax is also available for $300 per year or on the Internet for $250 per year. Access to the weekly estimates of world cotton supply and use by the Secretariat is also available on the Internet for $500 per year.