By George Flaskerud, Crops Economist
North Dakota State University Extension Service

North Dakota and U.S. farmers planted more spring wheat, durum, corn and canola than they said they would last March, according to a report released by the USDA on June 30. Producers also planted less barley, oats, flax, soybeans, dry edible beans and sunflowers, according to the report. U.S. spring wheat acres came in slightly above trade expectations, while durum came in below. Corn and soybean acres were slightly below expectations.

Compared with a year ago, North Dakota farmers planted a lot more corn and soybeans; a little more spring wheat and oats; less barley, dry edible beans and canola; and a lot less durum, sunflowers and flax. At the U.S. level, farmers planted a few more acres of soybeans instead of a lot more and less corn instead of more.

The stocks of all wheat came in above expectations, soybeans below and corn about as expected. Although below expectations, soybean stocks still were sharply higher than a year ago. This verifies a very burdensome supply and demand situation. Durum stocks were reported to be 40.45 million bushels, 17 percent lower than the estimate in the June supply and demand report, which is a positive surprise. The stocks report also was released June 30.

The reports had some initial impact on the market, but then weather became the major issue. Minneapolis December wheat futures closed at $4.99 June 30, up 6 cents from its previous close and up 50 cents from its June low, and traded close to its May high of $5.01. December corn futures closed at $2.60, up 5 cents for the day and up 12 cents from its June low. A high of $2.87 was achieved in May. November soybean futures closed at $6.22, up 13 cents for the day and up 31 cents from its June low. The contract reached a May high of $6.39.

Crop development continues to be the dominant market factor. The USDA crop condition ratings continue to slip for barley and soybeans and especially spring wheat. The rating for spring wheat has decreased from a high of 76 percent good/excellent to 57 percent as of June 25, a decrease of 19 percentage points. Barley has decreased 7 points from its high and soybeans decreased 3 points.

The soybean crop is most at risk for significantly lower prices by harvest, even though acres were down from intentions. Ending stocks are likely to be very large. November futures, at $5.50 or lower, look possible unless crop conditions deteriorate significantly. On the other hand, consider buying spring wheat call options on market weakness, especially if substantial preharvest sales already have been made. Three strikes out of the money September calls on June 30 would have cost 17 cents per bushel for Minneapolis wheat.

Planted acres of spring wheat were up 3 percent from a year ago for North Dakota and 4 percent for the U.S. Acres of durum were down 34 percent for North Dakota and 32 percent for the U.S. For all U.S. wheat, planted acres were up 1 percent.

Corn acres were up 24 percent from a year ago in North Dakota, but down 3 percent in the U.S. Soybeans also were up sharply in North Dakota (29 percent), but increased moderately in the U.S. (4 percent). Soybean acres are 54 percent of spring wheat acres in North Dakota.

Barley acres are down to 15 percent of wheat acres in North Dakota. Acres fell 12 percent in North Dakota and 10 percent in the U.S. However, oats acres increased 4 percent in North Dakota and 2 percent in the U.S.

North Dakota and the U.S. experienced similar declines for several crops. North Dakota decreases were 23 percent for oil sunflowers, 46 percent for nonoils, 27 percent for flax, 13 percent for canola and 3 percent for dry edible beans.