World cereal production in 2005 is forecast at 1 984 million tonnes, slightly down since the previous forecast and 3.4 percent less than 2004's record output, according to the September issue of FAO's Food Outlook.

"With this revision, the shortfall in production compared to the expected utilization in 2005/06 has grown, and a larger drawdown in global cereal stocks is now forecast," the report says.

World cereal utilization is forecast to reach 2 015 million tonnes in 2005/06, up 10 million tonnes from the estimated level in 2004/05, while total cereal food consumption is forecast at 983 million tonnes, up 1.3 percent from 2004/05, with most of the increase expected in developing countries. However, per caput intake remains stable in these countries.

Most of the anticipated decrease in global cereal output in 2005 is in developed countries, mainly reflecting smaller coarse grain crops. In the United States, adverse hot and dry weather for the maize crop was responsible for most of the downward adjustment for coarse grains. Drought also hit crops in parts of the European Union.

In developing countries, production is expected to be up marginally from the good level of 2004, mostly on account of better crops in several Asian countries.

Regarding world cereal trade in 2005/06, the report says it could reach nearly 236 million tonnes, 3 percent down from the 2004/05 volume, mainly reflecting good crops in some of the main importing countries.