By George Flaskerud
North Dakota State University Extension Crops Economist

The pace of hard red spring wheat exports is strong for now. Will it continue? If not, cash prices next spring may not justify storage. November generally has been a good time to sell spring wheat and could be again this year.

The pattern of spring wheat exports during August to mid-November was similar to a year ago. Exports peaked during September last year, but then dropped sharply in October. Total monthly exports leveled off during October through December, dropped sharply in January and then peaked again in June. The June peak was 21 percent lower than the September peak.

The 10-year seasonal pattern (1995-2004) is for exports to peak in September, bottom out January through February and then peak again in May, with the May peak 8 percent lower than the September peak. The June peak last year was considerably higher (30 percent) than the 10-year average May peak.

The pattern of exports during the balance of this marketing year could look more like the 10-year average than the 2004-through-2005 pattern. Exports could diminish in January through February and then modestly rise into May.

This outlook for exports would be consistent with the USDA's export projections. The pace of export commitments as of Nov. 10 stood at 96 percent of a year ago. The USDA is projecting that spring wheat exports for the marketing year will be 88 percent of a year ago. The USDA's November projection for spring wheat exports remained the same as in October.

So why should spring wheat exports be weaker than a year ago during the balance of the marketing year? Exports may be weaker because Canada could be more competitive. Canadian harvesting conditions in September of this year looked like a repeat of a year ago, hence the runup in September exports.

However, the quality of the Canadian crop this year turned out better than a year ago, even though it is below average. According to a crop report released by Saskatchewan Agriculture on Nov. 16, the spring wheat crop in Saskatchewan is estimated to be 43 percent No. 2 or better Canadian Western versus 19 percent a year ago and 73 percent for the 1995-through-2004 average.

For all wheat, the pace of export commitments to date stood at 97 percent of a year ago. The USDA is projecting that all wheat exports for the marketing year will be 94 percent of a year ago.