International cotton trade is forecast at a record 8.4 million tons in 2005/06, accounting for 34% of projected world production. Imports by China (Mainland) are expected to account for 35% of world imports this season compared to 20% last season. Exports from many countries are projected to increase, because of demand from China (Mainland) and high stocks.

Cotton planted area is estimated at 35.4 million hectares in 2005/06, down only 1% from last season. Due to less favorable weather conditions, yields are expected to decrease by 4% and reach 705 kilograms per hectare. As a result, world production in 2005/06 is estimated at 25 million tons, down 5% from last season. However, due to very high beginning stocks, total supply for 2005/06 is forecast at 35.3 million tons, the largest in history.

Production in China (Mainland) is estimated at 5.77 million tons, down 9% from the record of last season. US
production is estimated at 4.95 million tons, down only 2%. India is expected to experience an increase in
production to an unprecedented 4.25 million tons (up 3% from 2004/05).

Global mill use is forecast up 3% to 24.2 million tons. Ending stocks are forecast to rise to 11.1 million tons by  the end of this season, the highest in twenty years. Market fundamentals suggest that the Cotlook A Index will
average 61 cents per pound in 2005/06, 9 cents above the previous average.

WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION

. 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 . Million Tons Million Bales Production 26.25 25.0 25.1 120.6 115 115 Consumption 23.44 24.2 24.9 107.7 111 114 Exports 7.72 8.4 8.3 35.5 39 38 Ending Stocks 10.27 11.1 11.3 47.2 51 52 Cotlook A Index 52.2 61* 60* 52.2 61* 60*

* US cents per pound; the statistical estimates for 2005/06 and 2006/07 are based on current estimates of supply and use; 95% confidence intervals extend 12 cents per pound above and below the estimate.

PDF version: http://www.icac.org/cotton_info/publications/press/2005/pr_november_05.pdf  

The International Cotton Advisory Committee is an association of 41 governments of cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the Committee publishes information related to world  cotton production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical information on cotton production technology. Detailed statistics are found bimonthly in COTTON: Review of the World Situation, $160 per year. A monthly outlook by fax is also available for $300 per year or on the Internet for $250 per year. Access to the weekly estimates of world cotton supply and use by the Secretariat is also available on the Internet for $500 per year.