With little rain in sight in south eastern Australia, winter crop production in 2005-06 is forecast to be around 26 million tonnes, significantly lower than last season, the latest Australian Crop Report reveals.

The report was released today by Dr Stephen Beare, Acting Executive Director of ABARE.

‘Western Australia has had a good start to the winter cropping season, while farmers in east and south eastern Australia are still waiting for an autumn break to sow crops,’ Dr Beare stated.

Below average rainfall in the beginning of 2005 and the poor seasonal outlook, particularly in south and eastern Australia, pointed to a reduction in area sown, and reduced yields for the 2005-06 winter crop in these states.
‘While a proportion of the crop in these states has been dry sown, more rainfall is required to complete this season’s plantings, with rainfall throughout the growing season being critical,’ Dr Beare said.

For the largest winter crop producing states, Western Australia and New South Wales, the outlook for 2005-06 production is vastly different.

In Western Australia, winter crop production is forecast to increase by 16 per cent to over 13 million tonnes. In New South Wales, production is forecast to fall by 55 per cent to around 4 million tonnes. Production in Queensland, Victoria and South Australia is also forecast to be lower, by 27, 16 and 26 per cent respectively. Total Australian winter crop production is forecast to be 17 per cent less than in the 2004-05 season.

For the three major winter crops, wheat, barley and canola, both area and production are forecast to fall in 2005-06. Wheat production is forecast to fall by 21 per cent to 16 million tonnes, barley down 13 per cent to 5.6 million tonnes and canola 30 per cent lower at 1.1 million tonnes.

Total summer crop production in 2004-05 is estimated to be 3.5 million tonnes, similar to the previous season. Dry warm conditions in New South Wales and southern Queensland reduced grain sorghum yields but helped the cotton crops to achieve above average yields. Production of grain sorghum is estimated to have declined by 6 per cent to 1.7 million tonnes, whereas cotton production is estimated to have increased by over 70 per cent.

The latest Australian Crop Report is available at www.abareconomics.com