Australian Oilseeds Federation - Crop Report July 2005 (excerpts)

Canola 2005/06

The Australian canola crop is better than thought prior the rain in June in eastern Australia. We now estimate
production at 1.31 million tonnes.

The area sown for New South Wales has been increased by about 30,000 hectares over the June estimate with most crops sown dry before the break. Crops now have emerged well and few pest problems have been reported. Some areas are suffering from wet conditions, but overall the crop looks good. Therefore, the yield estimate has also been increased to 1.35 t/ha.

The Victorian crop and yield estimate remain the same as for the June report. After receiving over 50 mm in most areas, the dry weather over the last two weeks or so, has allowed all the crop that was not dry sown to be planted. Establishment is good with the most advanced crops being at the three-leaf stage, although most crops have only recently emerged. Few insect pest problems have been reported. Most of the crop is in the higher rainfall areas, resulting in the relatively high yield estimate.

The situation in South Australia is similar to Victoria with no change to area or production estimates from the June report. Very little crop was planted in lower rainfall areas due to the late break. Some canola will still be sown in the South East, either soon in early July or later as a true spring crop. Very few establishment problems have been reported. There may be upside to the yield estimate after we see what late winter and early spring bring.

Western Australia has had an excellent start with crops in many areas looking the best for several years, apart
from some waterlogging problems near Albany. Crops in the Esperance, Kwinana and Geraldton areas look excellent. The yield estimate has been raised slightly to 1.35 t/ha.

Market Comment

Recently there have been large daily swings in prices due to weather affecting the US soybean complex. August
weather will be critical for the US bean market. In Canada, canola sowing intentions were above expectations, although the full potential area may not have been sown due to wet weather in some areas and dry sowing conditions in other areas. However, it looks as if the Canadian crop will be higher than previously expected. In Australia, the market has been very quiet over the last few days, due to the above conditions in the US. (8 July 2005)