Detailed scientific analysis by the European Commission, through its advanced crop yield forecasting system, shows that this year’s production will be at least 28 million tonnes below last years’ record numbers (about 10% less), but total EU cereal harvest remains in line with the average of the last five years. The main reason for this drop is the impact of drought on crop yields. Production areas most affected are in Spain, Portugal, France, Italy and Central Greece. The forecast published today by the Commission provides yield estimates for the main crops throughout the European Union, comparing these with last year’s production and the average harvests over the last five years. It also identifies the areas most affected by this year’s extreme weather conditions and compares the situation with past extreme events.

The crop reduction is mainly explained by dry conditions and hot temperatures which have had an impact on water resources in the affected areas. The geographic extension could spread and crop yield impact worsen, if the drought continues. Irrigation limitations would additionally affect grain maize as well as sugar beet and potatoes.

For cereals, the yield decrease at EU level compared to 2004 is 24% for durum wheat (about 9% lower than average), 5.2% for soft wheat (still about 5% higher than average), 10% for barley (just lower than average), and a potential decrease of 6% for grain maize (still about 1% above average).

The geographic area affected by the current drought is less extended than that of the extreme drought in 2003. However, some of the affected regions show a worse situation. The Iberian Peninsula faces the worst conditions of the last 30 years and the situation appears critical. In the west and south-west of France, the 2005 drought is as bad as in 2003.

The 2005 drought presents several differences compared to that recorded in the summer of 2003. So far, the affected area is more limited: 27% of the wheat producing areas in 2005 against 53% in 2003.

On the other hand, the current dry period is far more extended in time: the drought onset conditions started in November 2004 and are still continuing. In 2003, the dry period started only at the beginning of March and lasted until the end of the summer.

The 2005 drought also presents similarities with 1976, which is considered one of the worst agricultural years for Europe. Both years suffered from the dry conditions since the beginning, but in 1976 the deficit of rain prevailing during the spring season was much more pronounced than the one experienced this year.

Additional information and detailed forecasts are published in MEMO/05/262

Further information: http://agrifish.jrc.it/marsstat/

Crop yield forecasts for 2005 and analysis of drought effects

This Memorandum provides additional information, maps and graphs related to IP/05/942 on the forecast of cereal production and impacts of drought. During the agricultural season, the Commission’s Directorate General Joint Research Centre (DG JRC) regularly issues forecasts for the main crop yields and produces analyses of the impact of weather conditions on crop production. These are based on advanced methodologies using satellite remote sensing and mathematical models which simulate crop growth.

The models and methodology in use have been conceived, experimentally developed and operationally implemented within DG JRC.

The crop yield forecasts, analyses and full description of the methodology are available at: http://agrifish.jrc.it/marsstat/.

Areas most affected by the 2005 drought (water balance deficit on arable land)

Analysis of crop yield by crop type and Country

Total Wheat (soft and durum varieties)
The yield is expected to be lower by 5.8% compared to last year. The resulting EU production could be decreased by about 10 Mt. The regions contributing the most to the yield decrease are the durum wheat areas (-24.3% at least resulting in a loss in production of about 5 Mt). More specifically: Spain (-75% for durum wheat yield, -49% for soft wheat), Portugal (about -50% for soft wheat and -57% for durum wheat), Italy (about -15% for durum wheat yield, resulting together with expected area reduction in a decrease of 2 Mt). France soft wheat yield is expected to be reduced only by 1.2% at the moment, but much will depend on the rainfall during wheat ripening in the Bassin Parisien.

Total Barley (including winter and spring varieties):
The yield is expected to be reduced by 10% (-0.7% compared to average) which will result in a production decrease of 6.5 Mt (10.5% below 2004 and 4.2% below average). Spain (-42%); Portugal (-55%); Greece (-17%; France (-3% so far); Germany (-1% so far); Italy (-3.7%) and Belgium (-3.8%) will contribute the most to yield reduction. Other countries will go back to more average yield levels compared to the exceptional results in 2004: Hungary (-21%); Poland (-13%); Slovak Rep. (-21%).

Grain Maize
At the moment the yield decrease is only 6% at EU level which, combined with area decreases, will result in a lower production by at least 6.5 Mt. However, the impact of low water reserves in some of the main productive basins of the EU (South west France and Northern Italy) could cause drastic reductions if there’s not enough rainfall in the next weeks.

Rice: rice areas are also possibly affected. Currently the yields are expected to be 19% lower, compared to the average of the last 5 years, in Italy (especially the late flooded varieties are threatened) and France, 14% lower in western Spain and more than 30% lower in Portugal. Up to now, the current year is very similar to 2003.

Other crops: other crops are, to a lesser extent, affected or potentially affected by the scarcity of rain and water reserves. At EU25 level, Rape Seed yield is expected to be at -3%, sunflower at -2% and potato at -3%.

Pastures: According to satellite observations, the lack of moisture coupled with high temperatures, affected pastures and grasslands in the south-western portions of the continent. The affected areas (19.700.000 ha) represent around 48% of the total pasture area. The worst conditions are observed in Spain and Portugal (12.5 % of the total, i.e. 5.200.000 ha), where the overall biomass appears to be at its worst level for the last 20 years. In France, south–central Italy and Greece (~ 36 % or the total), the impact of drought is also present though not serious. In the other Member States, for the remaining 19.5 % of pastures and grassland, the situation is normal. In some areas of central and central-eastern Europe, pastures are even experiencing a very favourable season.

Production céréalière: les prévisions de la Commission montrent une diminution due aux sécheresses dans l’ouest de l’Union Européenne

Les analyses scientifiques détaillées, que la Commission a obtenues grâce à son système avancé de prévision du rendement des cultures, montrent que la production de cette année sera inférieure d’au moins 28 millions de tonnes aux chiffres records de l'année dernière (soit environ 10% de moins), mais que la récolte totale de céréales dans l'UE reste proche de la moyenne des cinq dernière années. Cette chute est due principalement aux conséquences de la sécheresse sur le rendement des cultures. Les terres cultivées les plus touchées se trouvent en Espagne, au Portugal, en France, en Italie et au centre de la Grèce. Les prévisions publiées aujourd’hui par la Commission fournissent des estimations de rendement pour les principales cultures de l'Union européenne et comparent les chiffres obtenus avec la production de l'année dernière et la moyenne des récoltes des cinq dernières années. Elles recensent également les régions les plus touchées par les conditions climatiques extrêmement pénibles de cette année et établissent une comparaison avec des périodes critiques antérieures.

Cette diminution des récoltes s’explique principalement par les sécheresses et les températures très élevées qui ont eu des répercussions sur les ressources en eau des régions touchées. Si la sécheresse continue, le nombre de régions touchées pourraient se multiplier et les répercussions sur le rendement des récoltes s’aggraver. Une irrigation insuffisante aurait en outre des incidences sur la production de maïs-grain, de betteraves sucrières et de pommes de terre.

Par rapport à 2004, le rendement de la production céréalière au niveau communautaire diminuera de 24% pour le blé dur (environ 9% en dessous de la moyenne), de 5,2% pour le blé tendre (rendement qui reste toujours supérieur de 5% environ à la moyenne), de 10% pour l’orge (à peine en dessous de la moyenne) et probablement de 6% pour le maïs-grain (toujours environ 1% en dessus de la moyenne).

Les régions concernées par l’actuelle sécheresse sont moins nombreuses que lors de l'extrême sécheresse de 2003. Toutefois, la situation dans certaines régions touchées est bien plus inquiétante qu’en 2003. La Péninsule ibérique connaît les pires conditions climatiques de ces 30 dernières années et la situation semble critique. Dans l’ouest et le sud-ouest de la France, la sécheresse de 2005 est aussi grave qu’en 2003.

La sécheresse de cette année se distingue de la sécheresse de l’été 2003 pour plusieurs raisons. Jusqu’ici, le pourcentage de zones concernées est plus restreint, avec 27% des régions productrices de blé en 2005 contre 53% en 2003.

Toutefois, la période de sécheresse que nous connaissons actuellement est beaucoup plus longue, puisque les premiers signes de sécheresse se sont manifestés en novembre 2004 et persistent toujours. En 2003, cette période n’avait commencé qu’au début du mois de mars et s’était arrêtée à la fin de l’été.

La sécheresse de 2005 présente des analogies avec celle de 1976, année considérée comme une des plus mauvaises pour l’agriculture en Europe. Dans les deux cas, la sécheresse est apparue de manière précoce, mais le manque de précipitations du printemps 1976 était beaucoup plus grave que cette année-ci.

Vous trouverez plus d’informations et les prévisions détaillées dans le MEMO/05/262.

Pour de plus amples informations, voir à l’adresse suivante: http://agrifish.jrc.it/marsstat/