Agriculture in Illinois and the entire Great Lakes will be hurt by a changing climate, says a new report from the University of Illinois and the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).  Changing precipitation patterns, more extreme rainfall events, rising ozone concentrations, and an increase in pests and pathogens will disrupt current farming practices throughout the region.
 
Farmers in the region are already suffering from wetter spring and fall weather, and the intensity of rainstorms has also increased, says Michelle Wander, University of Illinois Associate Professor of soil fertility and co-author of Impacts on Agriculture: Our Regions Vital Economic Sector.  For farmers, these changes mean crop losses and higher costs.
 
Wander and co-author Steve Clemmer of UCS also agree that agriculture can be an important part of the solution to global warming. Practical solutions exist today for farmers to reduce heat-trapping gas emissions from their operations, says Clemmer. Along with addressing climate change, many of the available solutions also reduce soil erosion, improve air and water quality, and bring additional revenue to farmers and rural communities.
 
The new report shows that by 2030, Illinois summers may resemble those of Oklahoma or Arkansas in terms of average temperature and rainfall. By the end of the century, however, the Illinois summer climate will generally resemble that of current east Texas. Maximum daily temperatures could rise by 5 to l2 degrees in winter and 5 to 20 degrees in summer in the Great Lakes region. Drought frequency will likely increase due to the combination of higher summer temperatures, evaporation, runoff from intense rainfall events, and decline in summer precipitation.
 
Of serious concern, according to the report, are changing precipitation patterns. Crop production in the region is already suffering from problems related to both excess and insufficient moisture, and these problems will only worsen as climate change progresses. The combination of high heat and flooding is especially lethal to corn and soybeans.
 
Increasing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere trap heat and contribute to climate change.  Increased CO₂ and earlier planting dates could boost soybean yields in the central and northern portions of the region, but losses are expected in southern areas. Soybean yield variability is also expected to increase. Any increases may be offset or negated by rising ozone concentrations that result from human activities such as the application of nitrogen fertilizers and burning of fossil fuels.

"Ozone is particularly damaging to soybeans and horticultural crops, and soybean yields in the region are already reduced approximately 25 percent by ozone damage. But high heat and associated heat stress will also reduce corn yields in the south and western parts of the region," said Wander.
 
Climate changes will also affect the outlook for damaging crop pests. Ranges for many pests, including bean leaf beetles and corn borer, have already expanded northward. Hot, dry summers may worsen yield losses due to corn rootworm larvae. Excess moisture and humidity can increase the frequency of gray leaf spot, crazy top, and smut in corn; later in the century, drought will likely increase the damage inflicted by soybean cyst nematodes.
 
Wander and Clemmer, Research Director for UCS Clean Energy Program, collaborated to develop policy recommendations that would address heat-trapping emissions. They recommend increased funding for energy efficiency and renewable-energy projects.
 
"Over the past two years, the USDA has provided $44 million from the Farm Bill to support 280 renewable-energy and energy efficiency projects on American farms, said Clemmer. Projects funded in the first year alone will produce enough electricity to supply the annual needs of 30,000 households while creating 1,300 new jobs and greatly reducing carbon dioxide emissions.
 
Certain best practices in soil management such as no-till, reduced tillage, and crop diversification including the use of cover crops could enhance short-term soil carbon storage.
 
Wander and Clemmer also recommends incentives to sequester carbon on marginal lands and renewable energy standards for electricity and transportation. Clemmer says competition from renewable energy would also lower natural gas prices, thereby lowering fertilizer prices.

This release is based on a report entitled, Impacts on Agriculture, which can be found at www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/.

EXTENDED VERSION OF THIS NEWS RELEASE

Is Climate Changing?

Published: Feb. 18, 2005
ACE News - University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

There is growing evidence that suggests climate is changing in the Great Lakes region. Already winters are getting shorter, annual average temperatures are growing warmer, the duration of lake ice cover is decreasing as air and water temperatures rise, and heavy rainstorms are becoming more common.

"There is an extensive amount of evidence indicating that the Earth's climate has warmed during the past century," said Donald Wuebbles, head, University of Illinois department of atmospheric sciences. "Foremost among this evidence are compilations of the variation in global mean sea surface temperature and in surface air temperature over land and sea."

The increase in temperature has occurred in two distinct periods. The first was roughly from 1910 to 1945, and the second has been since 1976.

"The 1990s has been the warmest decade on record. And recent state of the art numerical models from the National Center for Atmospheric Research suggest that natural variability of the climate is not sufficient to explain increasing temperatures," said Wuebbles.

He says that by the end of the century, maximum daily temperatures could rise by 5 to l2 degrees in winter and 5 to 20 degrees in summer in the Great Lakes region. In addition, the growing season could be four to nine weeks longer.

Precipitation While current analyses suggest that annual average precipitation may not change dramatically in the years ahead, seasonal precipitation in the region could become generally more extreme with less precipitation in the summer and more in the winter.

"In the Midwest, changes in climate that have already occurred have produced longer growing seasons and heavier rainfall events," said Wuebbles. "And according to the latest models, average winter precipitation across the region will likely increase and summer precipitation will likely remain the same or decrease."

However, by the end of the century, drought frequency will likely increase due to the combination of increased summer temperature, evaporation, and runoff from intense rainfall events, and a decline in summer precipitation.

Overall, the region may grow drier because any increases in winter rain or snow are unlikely to compensate for the drying effects of increased evaporation and transpiration in a warmer climate.

"This drying trend will affect surface and groundwater levels and soil moisture is projected to decrease by 30 percent in summer. In addition, the frequency of intense weather events such as 24-hour, multi-day downpours may increase flooding," said Wuebbles.

The Causes Carbon dioxide is the largest changing concentration of the greenhouse gases and the one of most concern to scientists studying human effects on global climate.

"Human activities are primarily responsible for the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere," said Wuebbles. "Carbon dioxide has increased because of increased use of fossil fuel and because of land uses such as those related to deforestation and biomass burning."

Wuebbles says that climate change has the potential to significantly affect agricultural, ecosystems, water resources, and human health and welfare.

"All these areas are already under stress because of expanding population and continued urbanization. Climate change will further add to these stresses. Policies to address these potential impacts must be considered," he said.

Impacts Expected for Crop Agriculture

Together, the states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin have more than 380,000 farms, encompassing more than 100 million acres of prime land with a total economic impact of $40 billion.

Farmers in the region are already experiencing wetter spring and fall weather and more intense rainstorm events. These trends will continue.

"Later in the century, the region's climate will grow considerably warmer and probably drier in the summer. By the end of the century, the region's climate will be quite different than it is today," said Michelle Wander, University of Illinois Associate Professor of soil fertility.

Wander drafted the agricultural portion of the Union of Concerned Scientists publication Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region. The full report can be found at www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/.

"These changes will dramatically affect how the climate feels to us. By 2030, Illinois summers may resemble those of Oklahoma or Arkansas in terms of average temperature and rainfall. By the end of the century, however, the Illinois summer climate will generally resemble that of current east Texas. Winters will also change, albeit less drastically. By century’s end, they may be warmer and drier, much like current-day Oklahoma," Wander projected.

Yield Reducing Trends In general, using current climate comparisons, Great Lakes agriculture must prepare for climate conditions marked by extreme summer heat, summer drought, and spring and winter flooding.

"Farmers in the region are already experiencing wetter spring and fall weather and more intense rainstorm events. In addition, farmers are challenged by changing technology and markets. These trends will continue and are likely strengthen," said Wander. Wander says that too much water at the wrong time leads to waterlogging and delayed planting. "On the other hand, four days of ill-timed soil moisture stress can reduce corn yields by 50 percent, and soil moisture stress already limits soybean yields."

She says also that responses to moisture surpluses and deficiencies will increase production costs. Wet fall weather, for example, would increase the need for crop drying, and midsummer drought would increase the number of acres requiring irrigation. Such shifts will impose additional costs on farmers and increase tensions over limited resources.

Extreme events such as severe storms and floods during the planting season are likely to depress yields, too.

"Soybeans are particularly vulnerable to climate variability. Perennial crops such as fruit trees and vineyards are also vulnerable because adjustments cannot be made as flexibly, putting long-term investments at risk. And the combination of flooding and high heat is especially lethal to both corn and soybeans," she said.

Another factor in the climate change projections is an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide.

"Projections for soybeans, which are generally positive and attributed to both the CO2 fertilization effect and earlier planting dates, suggest increases in yield in the central and northern portions of the region but losses in southern areas. Soybean yield variability, however, is also expected to increase. Enhanced wheat yields of approximately 20 percent could result from these combined factors, but wheat production is likely to be limited by competition for land from other crops, including soybeans."

However, these yield increases may be offset or negated by rising ozone concentrations that result from human activities such as the application of nitrogen fertilizers and burning fossil fuels.

"Ozone is particularly damaging to soybeans and horticultural crops, and soybean yields in the region are already reduced approximately 25 percent by ozone damage. But high heat and associated heat stress will also reduce corn yields in the south and western parts of the region," said Wander.

Crop Pest Problems Climate changes will also affect the outlook for damaging crop pests.

"Leaf-chewing insects and aphids are stimulated by elevated carbon dioxide. Higher temperatures, particularly in spring and summer, accelerate the number of generations of harmful multi-generational pests such as soybean and corn leaf aphids, potato leafhoppers, and two-spotted spider mites. Ranges for many pests, including bean leaf beetles and corn borer, have already expanded northward."

Also, milder winters enhance survival for some pests such as bean leaf and corn flea beetles. A hot, dry summer may exacerbate yield losses from corn rootworm larvae. Excess moisture and humidity can increase the frequency of gray leaf spot, crazy top, and smut in corn; later in the century, drought will likely increase the damage inflicted by soybean cyst nematodes.

On the other hand, extremes in temperatures and precipitation at important insect growth stages may reduce the threat of some pests such as western corn rootworm or European corn borer. The interactions of extreme weather events and insect reproduction, survival, and success are complex and must be evaluated on a species by species basis. Water Resources Agriculture's impact on the region's water resources is already a concern due to chemical contamination of ground and surface waters. As climate continues to change, these concerns will intensify.

"More intensive production in the region's northern areas may require the use of more chemicals and nutrients. Increased flooding and more frequent extreme rainfall events will worsen soil erosion and introduce more agricultural chemicals and animal waste into the water supply," said Wander.

She says that farmers' costs to maintain soil fertility and municipalities' costs to preserve or restore safe drinking water are likely to increase.

"Eroded sediments and water runoff degrade streams and wetlands, reducing food and habitat for migratory birds and waterfowl. That, in turn, affects bird-watching and hunting activities, too."

Policies Can Reduce Heat-Trapping Emissions The Environmental Protection Agency estimates that agricultural activities were responsible for nearly seven percent of total U.S. heat-trapping emissions in 2001. This estimate does not include carbon dioxide emissions from on-farm energy use, but does include methane and nitrous oxide emissions, which are also potent heat-trapping gases. The good news is that practical solutions exist today for agriculture to reduce these emissions.

"Along with helping to address the growing problem of climate change, many of the solutions discussed below would also reduce soil erosion, improve air and water quality, increase biodiversity, and generate economic benefits," said Michelle Wander, University of Illinois Associate Professor of soil fertility.

Wander and Steve Clemmer of the Union of Concerned Scientists collaborated to develop policy recommendations that would heat-trapping emissions. They recommend increased funding for energy efficiency and renewable-energy projects.

"Over the past two years, the USDA has provided $44 million from the Farm Bill to support 280 renewable-energy and energy efficiency projects on American farms. Projects funded in the first year alone will produce enough electricity to supply the annual needs of 30,000 households while creating 1,300 new jobs and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by more than one million metric tons over the life of these projects," said Clemmer.

He notes, however, that the USDA has, in the past, denied proposals for dozens of other projects due largely to insufficient funding. Congress should increase funding levels, and states should offer incentives or tax credits to supplement these funds.

Certain best practices in soil management such as no-till, reduced tillage, and crop diversification including the use of cover crops could enhance short-term soil carbon storage.

"Effectively managed soils could abate an estimated 10 percent of heat-trapping missions produced in the United States over the next 30 to 50 years. Additional funding should be made available from the USDA's Conservation Reserve Program, Natural Resources Conservation Service, and other programs to encourage such practices," said Wander.

Wander recommends expanding programs to reduce nitrogen fertilizer use.

"Best practices to achieve this goal could produce significant reductions in heat-trapping emissions while lowering nitrate contamination of water supplies," said Wander.

For example, Wander says between 1985 and 1995, Iowa had several projects in place that reduced fertilizer use by more than two million tons, saved farmers $363 million, and reduced heat-trapping emissions by 10 million tons per year without affecting corn yields.

Several states and the Environmental Protection Agency offer incentives and programs to reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock and livestock waste.

"For example, Haubenschild Farms, a 1,000-acre dairy farm in Minnesota, received state and federal assistance in 1999 to install a manure digester that converts methane into enough electricity to meet the needs of the farm and an additional 75 homes. The 750-head dairy generates nearly $81,000 per year from electricity sales and saves $4,000 per year in heating costs. These savings should recoup the initial $355,000 investment in five years or less," said Clemmer.

Wander also recommends incentives to sequester carbon on marginal lands.

"Converting one million acres of marginal lands into native forests and planting 200,000 acres of riparian zone buffer strips with native trees or grasses such as switchgrass could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by an estimated 7.3 million tons per year. Additional funding should be made available from the USDA's Conservation Reserve Program, the U.S. Forest Service's Forest Legacy Program, and other programs," said Wander.

It would also be wise to establish renewable energy standards for electricity and transportation.

"Such standards are a popular and effective means of creating markets for clean energy produced on the farm. Standards requiring electric utilities to supply a portion of their electricity from renewable sources such as wind and bioenergy have already been established in 18 states including Minnesota, New York, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin," said Clemmer.

He says a Union of Concerned Scientists study found that a national standard that would require utilities to provide 20 percent of their electricity from renewable sources by 2020 would create 355,000 new jobs including 30,000 in agriculture; save consumers $49 billion on their electricity and natural gas bills; and reduce the projected growth in power plant carbon dioxide emissions by 59 percent.

Clemmer says competition from renewable energy would also lower natural gas prices, thereby lowering fertilizer prices.

In Illinois, there is a growing interest in renewable energy sources. Governor Rod Blagojevich, in his 2005 State of the State Address, announced a goal for each electric utility to generate 8% of its electricity from renewable energy sources. The goal is to help create jobs, protect the environment, and promote energy independence.