China's rice production could drop by as much as one fifth by 2080 in a worst case scenario, according to new joint UK/Chinese research, published today by U.K. Environment Minister Elliot Morley.

The research has shown that yields of three staple crops - rice, wheat and maize may fall by as much as 37 per cent over the coming century unless future levels of carbon emissions are curbed.

The £400,000 study, which looked into the likely effects of climate change on Chinese agriculture, found that average temperatures across China are expected to rise by between 3-4C by the end of the 21st century.

Regional climate model outputs, developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter, found that there are likely to be more extreme events, including hotter summer temperatures and a rise in the number of days of heavy rainfall. Winters are likely to become less cold.

The modelling work took account of variations in climate, soil and the influence of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, but did not look at water resource availability or pests and diseases.

It also looked for the first time at how socio-economic development could have a future impact on Chinese agriculture. One of the key conclusions was that under a high economic growth scenario, the area of arable land would decline by around 13 per cent, increasing the pressure on the remaining agricultural land.

Environment Minister Elliot Morley said the report emphasised that unless greenhouse gas emissions were reduced, climate change could seriously affect agricultural production in China.

"I welcome the fact that the project has helped to increase closer working relations on climate change as well as developing mutual understanding between scientists from the two nations. I look forward to developing our collaboration further in the second phase of the project," he said.

During the project, five young Chinese scientists each spent between two months and a year working with UK researchers on various models. Three study tours involving a variety of Chinese researchers and Government officials were also undertaken.

Chinese and British scientists are now preparing for a second phase of the project, due to begin in 2005. This will take account of lessons learnt from phase one of the study and look to explore the effect of climate change on water availability and carbon dioxide fertilisation and the impacts this will have on projected crop yields. The study is also likely to include work with regions of China thought to be particularly sensitive to climate change.

BACKGROUND

1. Defra and the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) signed the statement on joint work on climate change research on July 6, 2001. It followed a commitment made by Prime Minister Tony Blair during a speech to the Earth Summit on June 5, 1997 to get industrialised countries to work with developing countries to help curb climate change.

2. The 30-month project was managed by AEA Technology on behalf of Defra. The project in China was led by Professor Lin Erda, Director of Agrometereology at the Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science and involved input from the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA), the National Development Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA).

3. The key aims of the project were to:

• Assess the impact of climate change on Chinese agriculture through a collaborative project between China and the UK.
• Build capacity for this type of research within China by conducting training courses and facilitating academic exchanges between UK and Chinese scientists.

4. The summary report can be found on the Defra website at www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/07.htm.

5. China signed up to the Kyoto Protocol, which sets targets for industrialised countries to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases, on August 30, 2002