Source: ABARE

Winter grains production is expected to be around 31 million tonnes in 2004-05, a 21 per cent decrease from the previous season, according to the latest issue of the Australian Crop Report.

Mr Vivek Tulpulé, Acting Executive Director of ABARE, will release the November issue of the Australian Crop Report today.

‘The estimated winter crop production in 2004-05 is below the average achieved over the five years ended 2003-04, with dry and warm conditions across much of the Australian grain belt in September and October affecting crop development,’ Mr Tulpulé explains.

Of the major winter grains, wheat production is forecast to fall by 19 per cent to 20.2 million tonnes in 2004-05. Barley production is forecast to be 6.2 million tonnes in 2004-05, a decline of 28 per cent from last season. Canola production is forecast to fall from 1.6 million tonnes in 2003-04 to 1.2 million tonnes in 2004-05.

The most significant decline (in percentage terms) is likely to occur in Victoria, with winter grains production estimated to fall by around 39 per cent to 3.8 million tonnes in 2004-05. In Western Australia, the largest winter grains producing state, production is estimated to decline by 29 per cent to around 11.1 million tonnes.

However, winter grains production in New South Wales is estimated to increase by around 8 per cent to 8.7 million tonnes in 2004-05. An estimated increase in northern New South Wales is expected to offset lower production in southern and central New South Wales.

Mr Tulpulé drew attention to the positive outlook for summer crops, explaining that significant rainfall across the eastern states in early November provided a sound footing for planting summer crops.

‘Total summer crop area is forecast to rise by 25 per cent to 1.3 million hectares in 2004-05. Contributing significantly to this forecast rise is increased planting of cotton and sorghum, as water availabilities have improved in both Queensland and New South Wales,’ Mr Tulpulé said.

‘If average yields are achieved, summer crop production is forecast to increase by 13 per cent to 3.9 million tonnes in 2004-05,’ Mr Tulpulé concludes.

Of the major summer crops, cotton lint production is forecast to increase by 57 per cent to 533 000 tonnes in 2004-05. Sorghum production in 2004-05 is forecast to increase by 9 per cent to 2.0 million tonnes.