Australian grain and oilseed exports are forecast to increase in value from $5.7 billion in 2003-04 to around $6.3 billion in 2004-05.

This is a major feature in the latest edition of Australian GRAINS series jointly released by the Grains Research and Development Corporation (GRDC) and ABARE.

The forecast increase mainly reflects the carryover effect from the record harvest in 2003-04. For wheat, the value of exports is forecast to increase by 12 per cent to around $3.9 billion in 2004-05. For coarse grains, export earnings are forecast to remain largely unchanged at $1.3 billion in 2004-05, as the effect of forecast lower international prices is offset by an expected increase in export shipments. For canola, the value of exports is forecast to increase by three percent to $467 million in 2004-05.

Increased world grain production is forecast to place downward pressures on world grain prices in 2004-05. Large production increases are forecast for the European Union as production rebounds from the drought affected harvest in 2003-04. World wheat production is forecast to reach a record 606 million tonnes, coarse grains production 956 million tonnes and oilseed production 379 million tonnes in 2004-05.

In early September 2004, ABARE released its latest edition of Australian Crop Report. Total winter grain production is forecast to decline by 11 percent from the record production in 2003-04, to around 35 million tonnes in 2004-05. The forecast decline in winter grain production reflects partly a return to more average yields after an exceptional season in 2003-04.

Of the major winter grains, wheat production is forecast to fall by 11 percent to 22.3 million tonnes in 2004-05. Barley production is forecast to decline by around 1.3 million tonnes to 7.3 million tonnes in 2004-05 and canola production from 1.6 million tonnes in 2003-04 to 1.5 million tonnes in 2004-05.

The Australian GRAINS series of reports has been developed to alert graingrowers to the broad range of research that ABARE conducts for the GRDC. Printed copies of this report are available, free of charge, from GRDC’s Ground Cover Direct on Free Call 1800 11 00 44 or email: ground-cover-direct@canprint.com.au. Electronic copies are available on ABARE's web site: www.abareconomics.com