INTRODUCTION

Increased world grain production is forecast to place downward pressure on world grain prices in 2004-05. Large production increases are forecast for the European Union as production rebounds from the drought affected harvest in 2003-04. After record grain production in 2003-04, Australia’s winter grain crop is forecast to fall by 11 per cent to 34.9 million tonnes. Although production is forecast to decline, it is still above the average for Australian winter grain production over the fi ve year period ended 2003-04. Refl ecting mainly the carryover effect from the record harvest in 2003-04, the value of crop exports is forecast to rise by nearly 9 per cent to $14.5 billion in the year. For grains and oilseeds, the value of exports is forecast to increase from $5.7 billion in 2003-04 to around $6.3 billion in 2004-05.

Report in PDF format: http://www.grdc.com.au/bookshop/docs/ABARE_outlook04.pdf