The first wheat crop seasonal outlook report from the Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries (DPI&F) this year has encouraging news for Queensland wheat growers.

DPI&F crop modeller Andries Potgieter said the report showed the chances of Queensland wheat growers harvesting above-median yields for the 2004 season were slightly better than normal at this stage.
 

Mr Potgieter said the wheat outlook was less promising in southern New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and inland Western Australia where the chances of exceeding long-term median yields were lower, only 10 to 20 per cent in some areas. He said the forecasts were based on the outputs of a simple agro-climatic computer model that considered El Nino and Southern Oscillation forecasts and up to 102 years of historical climate information to generate a crop water stress value at shire level. Some of the modelling information would change during the wheat season and the forecasts would be revised each month. Mr Potgieter said soil water profiles were a key to Queensland's better wheat crop prospects. In southern Queensland, rain through the summer fallow had recharged soil water profiles to near full while water profiles were less favourable in much of Central Queensland. Most of the Central Highlands had a near normal chance (40 to 60 per cent) of exceeding the long-term median wheat yield, with southern Queensland wheat areas showing a slightly better chance (60-80 per cent) of exceeding that median. Mr Potgieter said there had been a few early plantings of wheat in southern and Central Queensland but the main planting was expected within about six weeks. Planting rain was needed in both areas. It was possible an El Nino event would develop in late winter so farmers and other business operators should consider this when making long-term management decisions and watch for fluctuations in the Southern Oscillation Index. Mr Potgieter said this was the fifth wheat season for which the forecasts had been produced. For the first time, he provided a similar forecasting service for grain sorghum last summer.

The colours show the potential for exceeding the long-term median wheat yield in the Queensland wheat belt for the 2004 season. Yield prospects at this stage are slightly better in southern Queensland than in Central Queensland.

He said agri-businesses, governments, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics and business news organisations used the wheat and grain sorghum forecasts.