Some highlights from Foodcrops and Shortages

As of February 2004, the number of countries facing serious food shortages throughout the world stands at 38 with 24 in Africa, 7 in Asia, 5 in Latin America and 2 in Europe. In many of these countries, food shortages are being compounded by the effect of the HIV/AIDS pandemic on food production, marketing and transport.

In eastern Africa, harvesting of the 2003/04 secondary cereal crops is almost complete in most countries, except in Ethiopia where planting is about to commence. The outlook is generally poor in the United Republic of Tanzania and Kenya mainly due to inadequate rainfall. In addition, pastoral areas in the region, particularly in Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, have received poor seasonal rains resulting in water and pasture stress. Overall, the food security situation of a large number of people affected by civil strife and drought in the region is highly precarious, including 7.2 million in Ethiopia, 3.6 million in the Sudan, 1.6 million each in UR Tanzania and Uganda, 1.9 million in Eritrea, 1.2 million in Kenya and 580 000 in Somalia. 

In southern Africa, prospects for the 2004 cereal crops are generally unfavourable at this stage due to prevailing drought conditions. The sub-region has faced an erratic rainfall pattern with heavy rains in early February causing flooding in the Caprivi Strip and Upper Zambezi plain. Drought in eastern South Africa, Swaziland and southern Mozambique is compounding the agricultural and food security situation already undermined by successive droughts since 2002. Household food security in the sub-region, exacerbated by the escalating maize prices in South Africa and Zimbabwe, is at its lowest during the February-April lean period just prior to the next harvest. Numbers of vulnerable people requiring food assistance have been revised upwards in Zimbabwe, Angola and Malawi.

In the Great Lakes region, food production in Burundi from the first season crops in 2004 is estimated at 1.1 million metric tonnes, well below the pre-crisis period average of 1988-93. The overall security situation in the region has improved, but food aid continues to be needed in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi and Rwanda for the vulnerable and IDP groups as the nutritional situation of these people remains critical.

In central Africa, crop prospects are unfavourable and food security remains precarious in the Central Africa Republic due to mass population displacement.

In west Africa, the 2003 aggregate cereal production for the nine Sahelian countries has been estimated at a record 14.3 million tonnes, some 2.9 million tonnes higher than the above-average crop of 11.4 million tonnes harvested in 2002. Production was significantly above average in all countries except Cape Verde.

In Asia, food supply prospects are generally favourable mainly due to good harvest. With generally favourable monsoon rains, rice - the major food grain in the region - reached all time record production levels in many countries in 2003. Ten Asian countries: Viet Nam, Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Indonesia, Cambodia, China, Lao People's Democratic Republic and Pakistan have been hit by the avian influenza virus. Up to 10 February, 19 persons had died and millions of poultry had been killed. The maize feed demand and soybeans market have been affected seriously. In Afghanistan, improved precipitation and snow cover throughout the country have reportedly enabled farmers to nearly match last year's record area planted with winter cereals, mainly wheat. 

In Central America and the Caribbean, aggregate cereal output in 2003 was estimated at about 1 million tonnes above the last five years' average, particularly due to the recovery of production in Honduras and Nicaragua. However, the crisis of the coffee sector in the sub-region continues to negatively affect the food security of large sections of population. In Haiti, the escalation of violence and the civil strife continues to hamper the delivery of critical food aid.

In South America, aggregate wheat output in 2003 is estimate at 21.6 million tonnes, 3.6 million tonnes above the previous year's level and above average. This result is mainly due to the record crop obtained in Brazil and the good harvest in Argentina. In the Andean countries, dry weather in coastal areas of Ecuador seriously affected the cereal planted area. By contrast, heavy rains have been reported in various departments of Bolivia and Colombia with serious damage to housing and infrastructure. In Colombia and Venezuela harvesting of coarse grains is well advanced and an above-average output is estimated.

In Europe, a strong recovery in cereal production is expected in the EU in 2004 after drought sharply reduced output last year. The winter wheat area is estimated to have increased in response to improved price prospects for the 2004/05 marketing season. The winter crops are reported to be in generally good condition so far. Among the central and eastern European countries, prospects for the winter cereal crops are also generally favourable and planted areas are reported to have increased throughout the region.

In the European CIS, generally favourable weather conditions and ample soil moisture coupled with ample protective snow cover have resulted in lower than average winterkill and satisfactory crop conditions throughout the region.

In North America, the latest information points to a reduction in wheat output in 2004 in the United States. The total area sown to winter wheat declined by 3 percent and the yield potential of some crops is expected to have been reduced by dry conditions at planting while the risk of winterkill has also increased this year due to limited snow cover. The 2003 wheat output was the highest of the past five years at 63.6 million tonnes. In Canada, tentative forecasts point to an increase in the aggregate cereal production in 2004.

In Oceania, the 2003 cereal production in Australia was estimated in December at 36.3 million tones, up from 19 million tones in 2002 when drought reduced the crop. Early prospects for the 2004 summer coarse grain crop, mostly sorghum, are favourable,due to good rains in the main producing areas.

The URL for Foodcrops and Shortages is: http://www.fao.org/giews/english/fs/fstoc.htm