'Recently improved productivity in the Russian Federation grains industry has resulted in the Russian Federation re-emerging on world grain markets’, Dr Brian Fisher, Executive Director of ABARE, said today when releasing the Australian Grains report Russian Grains Industry on the Move.

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991, there were significant declines in grain production and consumption in the Russian Federation and the withdrawal of the country from world grain markets. ‘However, in recent years the Russian Federation has become an important participant in world grain markets, only this time as a grain exporter’, Dr Fisher said.

‘Even with assumed moderate yield growth of 2.5 per cent a year, Russian wheat available for export could increase to around 7 million tonnes by 2008-09’, Dr Fisher said. Based on ABARE’s current forecast for world wheat trade in 2008-09, this would represent about 6 per cent of world trade.

For coarse grains (mainly barley), Russian production available for export is estimated to increase to around 3.8 million tonnes and could represent around 4 per cent of trade in 2008-09.

‘Such additional Russian grain production could result in world wheat prices falling by 2.8 per cent and world coarse grains prices by 2.6 per cent compared with what they otherwise would have been’, Dr Fisher added.

The Russian Federation has a freight advantage over Australian exporters in supplying the Middle East. For Australian grain exporters, increased Russian grain production may lead to increased competition for market share in that region.