By Dr Sardar Riaz A. Khan
Dawn via Genetic Post

Cotton is the most important cash crop of Pakistan. Export of cotton-based products contributes over 60 per cent of the total export earnings. In terms of value it adds over $2.5 billion to the national economy which is 3.5 of the GDP.

Although, it ranks fourth in area and production in the world, yet its yield per hectare (/ha) ranks 13th in the world, suggesting that there is good potential of increasing its yield.

In 2003, of the total world production of 21 million tons, the share of China, the largest producer of cotton in the world, was 23 per cent and that of the US, second largest, at 17 per cent. Again the share of India, third largest producer was 11 per cent from 7.4 million hectares (mha) as compared to 8 per cent from 3.1 mha of Pakistan, fourth largest in the world.

It is a labour-intensive crop and provides labour to the rural poor, especially to women for its 3-5 pickings. It sustains textile industry which engages the largest number of manpower (5 million) than any other industrial sector.

Besides, it yields 3.4 to 3.6 million tons of cottonseed which contributes between 64-70 per cent of the total domestic edible oil production. In addition to that over two million tons of oil seedcake is also produced as livestock feed and a part of cotton seed is also fed to lactating cows and buffaloes.

Inspite of all these advantages the cotton crop is suffering from severe perplexities since the inception of the country in 1947. For instance, the area under cotton was 1.24 mha in 1947, production 1.1 million bales and the yield/ha was 144kg.

The area production and yield/ha of cotton inspite of yearly fluctuations steadily increased till 1991-92 when the maximum yield ever obtained was 12.8 million bales from an area of 2.84 mha with a yield/ha of 769kg.

Unfortunately, due to mismanagement of cotton production system the production thereafter declined at an average growth rate of -5.7 per cent and yield/ha by -5.2 per cent.

The situation has further deteriorated during the last four years as cotton production has stagnated around 10 million bales. On the other hand the number of textile mills has increased from 271 in 1991-92 to 363 in 2002-03 according to the government statistics, while it is 450 according to various scribes in the national Press.

This reflects on the inefficiency of statistical data which should be accurate for proper planning. Nevertheless, due to an increase in the number of textile mills, the mill consumption has increased from 9.4 million bales in 1999-2000 to 11 million bales in 2002-03 and is expected to go up to 12 million in 2003-04 with an estimated increase to 15 million bales after 2005.

This growing imbalance between demand and supply has necessitated import of cotton which grew from 0.5 million bales (170kg per bale) in 1999-2000 to 1.6 million bales in 2001-02 and 1.1 million bales in 2002-03, which may further increase in 2003-04 due to poor crop production as a result of severe pest attack and non-availability of the required pesticides. Thus a surplus cotton producing country has been reduced to an importing country.

Till 1962 local hairy leaf cotton varieties grown in the country were resistant to most of the pests including the white fly which is a vector of the cotton leaf curl virus (CLCV).

Unfortunately, non-hairy leaf and high yielding foreign cotton varieties with low pest resistance requiring 6-8 sprays for pest control were introduced. For instance, the American cotton variety Delta Pine was introduced in 1963.

Due to its low pest resistant, especially white fly the CLCV was first detected in 1967 but no proper attention was paid to it. As a result the CLCV continued to increase and develop its ability to attack even the hairy leaf varieties as well.

Consequently the CLCV became a serious problem in the entire cotton belts of Punjab and Sindh. Similarly, many pests like Lashkari Sundi, American Sundi etc., have now gone out of control and are playing havoc to the cotton crop.

Since cotton is the major economic crop, foreign pesticide companies interested to increase their sales managed in introducing the so-called high yielding foreign cotton varieties requiring higher number of pesticide sprays with the obvious connivance of corrupt bureaucracy and cotton breeders.

Not only that, they managed to introduce new pests for greater dependency on pesticides as was done earlier in some other countries such as Sudan. As a result the import of pesticides increased from 826 tonnes in 1964-65 costing Rs7 million to 31783 tonnes in 2001-02 costing Rs5,320 million, thus causing heavy drain on the national exchequer.

Between 70-80 per cent of the imported pesticide is used on cotton crop alone. Inspite of this the cotton crop is still suffering from inefficient pest control resulting in low production to meet the domestic demand, inspite of the release of a plethora of the so-called high yielding and pest resistant cotton varieties by various federal and provincial cotton research institutes.

More recently, a multinational company, Monsanto is persuading the government of Pakistan to allow it to introduce Bt cotton variety in the country. The Bt cotton is genetically-engineered with toxic genes obtained from a soil bacterium Baccilus thurinqiensis (Bt), which is claimed to be deadly to Sundies.

There are, however divergent views on the Bt cotton. The proponents of the Bt cotton say that the Bt cotton seed of variety Bollgard 1 developed by Monsanto in 1996 has deadly resistant against Lashkari Sundi, American Sundi, Pink bollworm and some other pests.

As a result supplementary foliar insecticide sprays are only occasionally required to keep the sucking pests and other insects for causing excessive damage in the Bt cotton fields.

They further claim the Bt cotton is planted on 70 per cent of the area under cotton in the US and 40 per cent in South Africa. Its use is also increasing in China, India, Spain, Australia, etc.

They further claim that the increase in yield of the Bt cotton over conventional varieties was 7-12 per cent higher in the US, 15 per cent in China, 12 per cent in Spain and 14-38 per cent in India.

According to the them negligible number of sprays are required on the Bt cotton as compared to six or more for pest control in the non-Bt cotton thus reducing the cost of cultivation and increasing profit.

On the other hand some eminent cotton breeders and entomologists of Pakistan have different views. They have written in the national press that the Bt cotton would not do away with all chemical sprays as it does not kill all cotton pests except bollworms and for the control of all other pests the usual broad spectrum of chemical sprays will have to be used.

They also presented the latest research data on the Bt cotton obtained in the US, China, India, Spain and Australia. It showed that the Bt cotton was not resistant to bollworms and farmers had to spray about the same amount of pesticides on both the Bt cotton and conventional varieties.

Field data also showed that the Bt cotton plant is weak, its boll size is smaller and length of its cotton fibre is shorter than the non-Bt cotton. Hence its yield and quality is relatively poor.

Similarly, studies in various research institutes in China showed that gene isolated from bacterium harms natural enemies of cotton bollworms. Moreover, the control of bollworms declines considerably by third and fourth generation of the Bt cotton and pest are developing resistant to the Bt cotton toxins.

It also has adverse effects on environment. Again research in Australia showed the Bt toxin released from the plant roots has very harmful effects on soil biodiversity and useful microbes .

Some farmers in Sindh tried to grow the Bt cotton from the seed probably smuggled from India. The field observations made by a scientist in Sindh, showed that the so-called Bt seed was mixed with nearly 70 per cent seed of NIAB 78 a local variety.

Mixing seed of improved varieties, pesticides and fertilizers has become a common feature of our crop production system. Nevertheless, the Bt cotton fields showed medium to severe attack of the CLCV, though the individual Bt plants showed resistant to bollworm but were highly susceptible to jassid attack which required several sprays.

In view of these divergent views it is suggested that the import of Bt cotton seed be immediately stopped. A committee of highly competent cotton scientist be formed which should study the performance of the Bt cotton in China and India whose cotton growing system is mostly relevant to ours.

If the committee finds that the Bt cotton may have a good potential in Pakistan then they should import pure seed of the latest varieties like Bollgard 11 or others as Bollgard 1 evolved 10 years ago has become obsolete and have lost resistant to pests.

Then under the personal supervision of this committee in collaboration with the provincial cotton research institutes of Punjab and Sindh, it should be grown on farmers field in the cotton belt of both these provinces.

The performance of Bt cotton as compared to the latest recommended varieties be strictly monitored and evaluated under the conditions obtaining in Pakistan before taking any final decision of its recommendations to the farmers.

Nevertheless, the chances of acting on this or any other positive approach for attaining self-sufficiency in cotton production for meeting the demand of textile industry and have an exportable surplus are bleak.

Because, it is the track record of the bureaucracy that they are more interested in importing agricultural commodities such as wheat, edible oil, etc., and take commissions on their import rather than attaining self-sufficiency in their production.

The import of cotton will further provide them the chance of taking commission on its import. My this assertion on corruption has been confirmed in the UN sponsored international seminar on corruption recently held in Islamabad where it was recognized that Pakistanis have lost their national character.

Corruption and lust for money have become supreme. Even General Musharraf has conceded that corruption and lust for power and money has become a part of our society which creates problems in the way of development of the country.